Global Economics Update What is behind the global slowdown? On the face of it, the slowdowns currently seen in many countries appear attributable to a range of country-specific factors. But could we be missing the wood for the trees? Although there is little... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) The slump in export volumes in December probably overstated the weakness in external demand. Even so, we expect export growth to slow this year. 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs now less exposed to a China slowdown? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro puts trade ahead of fiscal reform at Davos Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro’s headline speech in Davos today suggests that opening up the economy to international trade will be a major priority, something that would boost the economy’s long... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most at risk from a sharp slowdown in China? Weaker growth in China is already weighing on exports from the rest of Asia, and a further slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of the region. A slump... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What might a “soft” Brexit look like? With Prime Minister Theresa May now holding cross-party talks, the chances have risen of a “soft” Brexit, resulting in the UK retaining closer ties with the EU than her defeated deal would have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawks in Hungary, Erdogan’s enhanced economic powers Hawkish comments from Hungary’s MPC this week support our view that monetary policy will be tightened by more than is priced into markets. Meanwhile, emergency economic powers granted to Turkey’s... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Exports to remain weak, Philippines’ budget impasse The latest export data for Asia paint a glum picture, with December figures showing exports fell in y/y terms in China, Singapore, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and India. With global growth likely to slow... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Growth likely to slow further in 2019 The latest manufacturing PMIs add to the evidence that economic growth in Switzerland and Sweden will continue to slow. The Swiss index is consistent with annual growth in industrial production of... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Subdued outlook for exports The relative weakness of the rupee is doing little to boost India’s exporters, who are finding it hard to capitalise given a weakening of global demand and their own capacity constraints. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: why trade liberalisation would help Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro seems to be pushing one of his campaign pledges to liberalise trade and, if successful, history suggests that this might plausibly add as much as 0.75%-pts to... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
