China Data Response Trade (Jan.) The January trade data were much stronger than anticipated but seasonal volatility caused by annual shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year make it difficult to get a good grip on underlying trends... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Balance of payments risks easing Kenya’s current account deficit remains a vulnerability, but we don’t think that it poses a threat to the economy this year. In fact, we think that the deficit will narrow further in 2019 as oil... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit to $49.3bn in November, from $55.7bn, suggests that trade made a small positive contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but only because imports... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Dec.) Household spending appears to easing and will probably continue to do so as the outlook deteriorates in 2019. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch current account surplus to remain high In our view, the Netherlands’ huge current account surplus, at around 10% of GDP last year, is unlikely to fall much anytime soon. Household saving will stay high, the government budget will remain in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? Slower growth in China won’t immediately restrain Australia’s exports. But by lowering commodity prices, it makes investment in new mining projects less profitable and means that the mining investment... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What a no-deal Brexit would mean for Ireland The latest twists in the Brexit saga suggest to us that the UK is most likely to stay in the EU beyond 29th March and leave later in the year with some kind of deal. If so, we think Ireland’s GDP... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slump in technology exports to weigh on Asian growth The slump in Asian exports late last year was mainly due to a sharp fall in demand for electronic products, which most likely reflects a turn in the sector’s inventory cycle. The poor prospects for... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports ringing alarm bells Most recent signs point to a gradual deceleration in China’s economy but the import data are a key exception, showing an abrupt contraction in November and December. While there appear to be several... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Recent weakness a sign of things to come After ending 2018 on a very weak note, world trade growth is likely to slow this year as the global economy loses momentum. A slowdown in world trade is highly likely regardless of whether the US and... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Exports slump as tech sector cools A shocking set of export figures this week may have been worsened by specific troubles in the tech sector. But a deterioration in the global environment is likely to be an increasing headwind for the... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM export weakness to continue in 2019 EM export growth slowed sharply in November and the early signs are that the December figures will be even worse. Some of this was due to falls in commodity prices. But much of the weakness appears to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind Tunisia’s large current account deficit? Tunisia’s large current account deficit is the result of struggles in the tourism sector as well as an overvalued exchange rate and overly loose fiscal policy. Implementing austerity looks to be an... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
