Global Economics Update Euro-zone economies most exposed to global downturns Since major euro-zone economies are more globalised than most, they are more sensitive to turns in the global business cycle. This partly explains why, having outperformed in 2017, they have... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export downturn worsens, Trump-Kim summit The weak Korean export figures for the first 20 days of February that were published earlier this week suggest that the region’s export downturn is intensifying. Looking ahead, the highlight of the... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade talk optimism, RMB stability pledge Negotiators are making progress sketching out the specifics of a US-China trade deal, which suggests that Trump is likely to postpone the tariff hikes scheduled for next week. But the big picture is... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Further rate hikes likely in Tunisia, the Qatar blockade The Tunisian central bank hiked its key policy rate aggressively this week and we think that further steps will be needed to correct the country’s large economic imbalances. Meanwhile, the UAE has... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Exports now showing impact of tariffs The impact of US tariffs on China’s exports was initially masked by firms rushing out shipments of unaffected products in an attempt to beat any tariffs that came in later. That “front-running” seems... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The continued sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in February adds to the evidence that Japan’s economy is losing steam rapidly and suggests that GDP growth will remain weak for now. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) The renewed widening of the trade deficit in January suggests that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in the first quarter and we think that export growth will remain sluggish this year. 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lira still vulnerable to swings in risk appetite The improvement in Turkey’s current account position means the lira no longer looks fundamentally misaligned, but the recent period of stability won’t last. While a repeat of last year’s currency... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit no cause for panic India’s merchandise trade deficit widened in January, but with oil prices likely to fall over the coming months, we think the shortfall will narrow again before long. In turn, that should help to keep... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil by rail exports plummet, USMCA hurdles mount Alberta’s oil production cuts have successfully reduced the Canadian oil price discount compared with US benchmarks, but their success has produced some unintended negative consequences. 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly China and Germany, another Spanish election With Germany having narrowly avoided recession and Italy’s downturn dragging on, policymakers at the ECB will soon have to provide more clarity about which tools they are willing to use if the... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth rapidly losing momentum The latest figures show that EM export sectors faltered at the end of 2018. Chinese trade numbers for January were surprisingly upbeat, but seasonal effects are probably distorting the real trend. We... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak growth in Singapore to prompt policy loosening The weak Q4 GDP figures for Singapore that were released earlier today reaffirm our view that monetary and fiscal policy will be loosened this year. Meanwhile, the widening of Indonesia’s trade and... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium exports hit a record China’s major commodity exports rose in January, probably due to a combination of an earlier Chinese New Year holiday and sluggish domestic demand. Imports also painted a surprisingly resilient... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
