Europe Economics Focus EU to move cautiously on China de-risking In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors... 7th June 2024 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Still struggling to curb dependence on China Today’s trade data underscore again the extent to which global demand is supporting China’s economy, and how little impact the trade restrictions of recent years have had. China’s export volumes have... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (May 2024) Export values rose y/y at the fastest pace since April 2023, with export volumes also picking up. We think exports will remain strong in the coming months, defying the expansion of Western tariffs... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Why are shipping costs surging again? Container shipping costs have rebounded in the past month amid a pick-up in demand for goods from China and a possible front-loading of festive orders due to concerns about future shipping disruptions... 6th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr. 2024) The April trade data suggest that net trade is on track to weigh on GDP growth again this quarter, but that is primarily due to continued strength in imports, which paints a better picture of domestic... 6th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Exports to remain a near-term prop to growth Global demand is giving a bigger boost to China’s economy than we had anticipated this year and foreign tariffs will make little difference to aggregate export performance in the near term. We now... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to a rebound in global industry in Q2 The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry has continued to gather momentum so far in Q2 and that price pressures have increased somewhat. But that probably won’t... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal tailwinds to return, export rush lifts freight rates Today’s PMIs suggest that China’s rebound is faltering. That appears to reflect a drying up of fiscal support after the initial surge at the beginning of the year. There’s more in the pipeline though... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Key highlights from May This Monthly looks at some of the key highlights from the Climate Economics service in May, including our coverage of US tariffs on Chinese-made green technology and recent price movements in the EU... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024) Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024) Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker... 24th May 2024 · 6 mins read
