Global Markets Update Will smaller EM Asian markets keep underperforming? Smaller stock markets in EM Asia have missed out on most of the big rally in global equities since around the turn of the year. But the characteristics that explain their relative weakness so far in... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update China trade deal won't prevent economic slowdown The rumoured trade deal with China won’t in itself provide much boost to the economy even if it includes the removal of the punitive tariffs levied by both sides in the past year. We continue to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB growth forecasts to remain too optimistic Philip Lane, who is due to take over as the ECB’s Chief Economist in May, acknowledged last week that Q1 2019 will probably be the third successive quarter of below-potential GDP growth. We agree with... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US/China deal is limited comfort for global economy We do not expect the trade deal that is taking shape between the US and China to transform the outlook for the world economy, not least because we always argued that the adverse effects of new and... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modi government likely to continue with FDI reform Recent moves to tighten restrictions on foreign e-commerce firms are more a reflection of the government wanting to boost popular support ahead of the general election than a fundamental shift in... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth slows; US-China edge closer to deal The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little better than the markets were braced for, but the bottom line is that growth has now been slowing for the past few quarters. We expect that... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Export prospects further deteriorate The decline in the global manufacturing PMI to a two-year low in January suggests that prospects for Canadian exporters have deteriorated further. On past form, the global PMI is broadly consistent... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rates in Egypt and Tunisia head in opposite directions Interest rate moves in Egypt and Tunisia this month highlighted the important role that balance of payments positions are playing in monetary policy decisions. In Egypt, tighter fiscal policy and the... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap External pressures keep frontiers in tightening mode The monetary tightening cycles that began last year in many of the large EMs are petering out fairly quickly. But in many of the smaller Frontier markets, interest rate hikes are still at the top of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A lot of good news on trade is now discounted Although there is no one definitive measure, most evidence suggests that as much as half of last year’s hit to global markets from worries about a US-China trade war has now unwound. Given the type of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No easy choice on no deal tariffs The Government has the unenviable choice of deciding whether households or firms should bear the brunt of higher tariffs in a no deal Brexit. It will probably opt to expose some firms to more external... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another look at the slowdown in the euro-zone The slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in the second half of last year resulted from weaker exports and domestic demand, about half of which was due to problems in the car industry. But more recently... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Export volumes should fall this year The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil, soybeans and the trade war Brazil would be the biggest loser if China increases its imports of US soybeans as part of a trade deal. But the overall impact on Brazil’s export revenues and overall GDP growth would probably be... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Indonesia’s current account? Indonesia’s current account deficit should narrow this year, but not by enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates, as some analysts are now predicting. 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
