Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) The rebound in February’s exports was probably distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year. What’s more, the PMIs from Japan’s main trading partners suggest that exports will remain subdued... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone’s supply chain links: smaller than assumed Supply-chain links between Germany and the manufacturing sectors of other large euro-zone countries are smaller than people tend to think. As long as the slowdown in Germany is contained primarily to... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted inflation strengthens case for Fed patience The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slump worsens The slump in EM exports deepened in the first few months of 2019, and with headwinds from low commodity prices and slower global growth likely to persist, we expect exports to remain extremely weak... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Narrowing EM external deficits reduce currency risks Current account deficits have started to narrow in many major EMs, most notably Turkey and Argentina, reducing the risk of large currency sell-offs. That said, there are a few countries, such as... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The larger-than-expected monthly increase in GDP of 0.5% in January (consensus 0.2%) is a reassuring sign that, up until January at least, the UK economy was weathering the political crisis at home... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The February trade data are downbeat, even accounting for seasonal distortions. Tariffs are weighing on shipments to the US. But broader weakness in global demand means that, even if Trump and Xi... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank mergers to lift profits, trade deal back on agenda Upcoming regulatory changes reported this week should help support an increase in bank profits and thereby neutralise one of the key arguments for why the Bank of Japan should reverse its ultra-loose... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade contracted most since financial crisis in Q4 World trade weakened much more than we had anticipated last year. As the global economy loses further momentum this year, world trade growth is likely to continue to be sluggish, regardless of whether... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The implications of a comprehensive US-China deal We have argued before that a limited US-China trade agreement ruling out further tariffs now appears largely priced in to markets. But the chances of a more comprehensive deal, including the roll-back... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Jan.) The soft growth in retail sales in January means that weakness in consumption at the end of 2018 probably continued into 2019. Meanwhile, net trade may not support GDP as much as implied by the large... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to a 10-year high in December confirms that net trade was a drag on GDP growth in fourth quarter, and the weakening global backdrop suggests that drag will intensify... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) Although December’s trade data were worse than expected, we doubt this will result in a downward revision to the fourth-quarter GDP data. But with global business surveys deteriorating in recent... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Weathering the storm With 23 days to go until the UK leaves the EU and no resolution in sight, we appear to have reached one of the most intense phases of Brexit uncertainty. However, the latest figures have been a bit... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s unrealistic pledges to import US commodities There has been a surprisingly muted reaction in commodity markets to the latest reports that China and the US are close to a trade deal. We think this reflects a combination of the fact that much of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
