US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) After falling sharply in January, the trade deficit declined a little further in February thanks to a jump in civilian aircraft exports and a subdued gain in imports. Neither of those are particularly... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & International Trade (Feb.) Recent declines in capacity constraints and inflation expectations suggest that March’s pick-up in core inflation is likely to be reversed before long. Meanwhile, the slump in export volumes in... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) The renewed trade deficit in March is not an area of immediate concern and we think that net trade may have actually boosted GDP growth in Q1. The bigger picture, however, remains unchanged – the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM currency vulnerabilities shifting In our Risk Monitor published this time last year, we warned about growing risk of crises in Turkey and Argentina. The likelihood of full-blown currency crises occurring in the emerging world now... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit no cause for alarm India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened a touch in March but, with oil prices likely to fall, we think the deficit will remain contained over the coming months. In turn, that should help to keep... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Slower growth after the election Growth in India is likely to slow as policy tightens after the general election. Even so, it should still be the best performing major emerging economy in the coming years. 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Stronger-than-anticipated exports hint at an uptick in foreign demand but disappointing imports suggest that domestic demand may not be holding up as well as hoped. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade frictions not a major risk to economy China announced this week that its anti-dumping investigation into Australian barley imports will drag on longer than planned, fuelling tensions between the two countries further. While China’s small... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly World Bank too optimistic, remittance crown retained The World Bank released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Bank is... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Feb.) The initial estimate of GDP was once again stronger than the survey evidence had suggested, providing a reassuring sign that the economy has weathered the Brexit chaos and overseas slowdown well. But... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Breaking down the slowdown in world trade A detailed breakdown of global exports suggests that the US-China trade war cannot be blamed for the slowdown in world trade. Instead, the underlying slowdown has featured a wide range of goods, with... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Breaking down the slowdown in world trade A detailed breakdown of global exports suggests that the US-China trade war cannot be blamed for the slowdown in world trade. Instead, the underlying slowdown has featured a wide range of goods, with... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Swiss pivot towards Asia reduces reliance on euro-zone The Swiss economy will not be immune to weak growth in the euro-zone over the coming years, but rising demand from Asia and the increased importance of sectors that are relatively insensitive to the... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would a no-deal Brexit mean for Emerging Europe? In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we think that weaker UK import demand would probably result in Central European GDP growth in 2019-20 being 0.3-0.5%-pts weaker than in a managed Brexit scenario... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
