Commodities Update China commodity trade not out of the woods yet After collapsing in January and February, China’s commodity exports stabilised last month. But with economic activity outside China now in the doldrums, this is unlikely to last. Meanwhile, China’s... 14th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Shipments picked up last month as factories re-opened and domestic demand began to recover. But with economic activity in the rest of the world now collapsing, the worst is still to come for China’s... 14th April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m fall in GDP in February will be the last figure that looks anything like “normal” for a while as the coronavirus lockdown will mean that in March and April GDP will fall at a speed and... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Feb.) The small decline in the trade balance in February was the result of a sharp decline in exports being offset by a sharp decline in imports consistent with our view that domestic demand was set to... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery The first monthly data points for March add to broader evidence that activity began to bounce back last month. But the recovery already appears to be losing momentum and has been unevenly spread, with... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) A surge in aircraft exports caused the trade deficit to unexpectedly narrow in February. But with oil prices plunging in March and export volumes likely to fall by more than import volumes amid the... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Mar.) Korean trade figures held up surprising well in March but given collapsing global demand this is unlikely to continue. We expect a sharp contraction in export values in the next few months. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest survey data add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound but suggest that weak foreign demand and labour market strains remain headwinds. 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Virus to reduce world trade by a fifth in 2020 The latest trade figures from the CPB revealed only a small fall in world trade volumes in January, but export orders from the PMI surveys have since slumped. With the coronavirus plunging the world... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Will the market rout trigger a balance of payments crisis? Foreign portfolio flows out of India’s markets have surged over the past month to more than double the peak during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013, which pushed India to the brink of a balance of payments... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Mar.) There are signs that trade has recovered somewhat from the shock of Chinese factory shutdowns, with both exports and imports bouncing back over the first 20 days of March. But with the world economy... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) Exports bounced back in February even as China’s economy came to a standstill. But with the coronavirus now disrupting economic activity across the globe, that resilience won’t last. 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update External position secure amid market turbulence India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a one-year low in February and the collapse in oil prices since then should push the deficit even lower in the months ahead. As such, we now expect the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
