Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The smaller trade surplus in April largely reflects commodity price movements so we expect net trade will still make a positive contribution to growth in Q2. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s current account deficit to widen further Weak export growth has caused Hungary’s current account balance to swing from a large surplus in 2016 to a small deficit, which is set to widen further. One consequence is that the forint is likely to... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade war doesn’t account for much of the global slowdown The direct effects of the trade war on global GDP have so far probably been negligible. The indirect impact, via weaker confidence and investment, has been bigger. But we estimate that even this... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US importers switching suppliers to avoid tariffs In response to the tariffs imposed on China, US importers are switching to alternative suppliers in Asia, which could explain why custom duties revenues have fallen back in the past couple of months... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US tariffs on Mexico and the implications for EMs US tariffs on imports from Mexico would have major repercussions for Mexico’s economy, but any spillovers on other EMs through trade links are likely to be small. For the rest of the emerging world... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates to rise The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May) Weak PMI readings and the deterioration in Korea’s export data suggest that the regional economy is likely to have endured another quarter of disappointing growth in Q2, dashing hopes of a quick... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariff threats rock weakening economy The shock news that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico comes amid mounting evidence that the economy has already lost considerable momentum. The May employment... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump tariffs pose a growing threat to the outlook President Donald Trump’s shock announcement of tariffs on Mexican imports could be challenged by Congress, but the possibility that both Mexican and Chinese imports might be subject to a blanket 25%... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of Trump’s tariffs There’s plenty of uncertainty about whether the tariffs on all US imports from Mexico announced last night by President Trump will be introduced and rise to the full 25%. The impact of the starting... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Tentative signs of stabilisation in world trade World trade volumes contracted again in Q1. But just as trade tensions between the US and China are ratcheting up again, there are a few signs that the slowdown in world trade may be bottoming out. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the worst over for China? The domestic headwinds that have caused China’s economy to slow over the past year are abating thanks to the policy support that has put a floor under credit growth and fuelled local government... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data leave Trump with weaker hand in trade talks The strength of the US economy in the first quarter was presumably one of the factors that emboldened President Donald Trump to take a tougher line with China in the trade dispute. But the incoming... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weakness of core inflation to prove persistent Fed officials have dismissed the recent weakness of core inflation, which has fallen to only 1.6% on the PCE measure, as being driven by transitory factors. Methodology changes resulted in a sharp... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
