Commodities Update Little to cheer in China’s May trade data China’s commodity import volumes were subdued last month, which is consistent with our view of soft Chinese domestic demand and downward pressure on commodity prices. Moreover, while there was no... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) While exports rose in May, weaker global demand and the escalating trade war suggest that they will start to fall again before long. 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade war escalates with economy already weakening This week we formally incorporated a further escalation of the US-China trade dispute into our baseline macro forecasts, shaving 0.2% points off US GDP growth both this year and next, taking us to 2.2... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade tensions to weigh on growth April’s trade data painted a positive picture of the manufacturing sector, but the further fall in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the outlook for exporters is bleak. Conditions could... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Chances of lasting trade deal recede Uncompromising messages from Beijing this week suggest that China’s leaders have concluded that there in no prospect of a resolution to the trade war any time soon. Limits on China’s rare earth... 7th June 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Mexico tariffs pose significant risk for the autos sector The impact on prices of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports would be partly offset by a sharp drop in the peso. But the potential disruption to the motor vehicle industry, which relies on a continued flow... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan caught in the crossfire While it hopes to secure its own trade deal with the US before long, Japan risks getting caught in the crossfire of other US trade disputes. The prospect of a 25% tariff on all goods imported from... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Pressure for reform ratcheting up The withdrawal this week of the preferential trade status granted by the US to several Indian products will have limited economic impact given that exports of the affected goods were worth just 0.2%... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Headline CPI inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in May, which will be used by the central bank as vindication of its change to a more dovish policy stance in yesterday’s... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economic outlook is subdued regardless of tariffs Our forecast that the housing downturn would weigh on economic activity and force the RBA to cut rates was proven right this week. And given recent data suggest there is considerable spare capacity in... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Factoring the escalating trade war into our forecasts We are now incorporating a further escalation in the trade war with China into our global forecasts. We think that will knock a few tenths off annual US GDP growth this year and next. Core PCE... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Preparing for a long trade war A deal to end the US-China trade dispute appears further away than ever. We now expect all US goods imports from China to be subject to a 25% tariff by early next year. China is likely to respond with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April’s trade data point to net trade making a very large positive contribution to GDP growth this quarter, following the large negative contribution in the first quarter. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
