India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time in five months in June. Looking ahead, a limited exposure to a more protectionist US, as well as low oil prices, will help to keep the... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update What do nuclear restarts mean for Japan? Japan’s government will probably expand the number of operating nuclear reactors from nine now to 17 by 2030. While the impact on the trade balance will be tiny, electricity prices may fall... 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Exports declined last month as a result of the step-up in US tariffs in May and waning global demand. Imports also weakened on the back of a renewed domestic slowdown. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (May) Despite the rebound in monthly GDP in May, the economy may have contracted in Q2 as a whole. But it’s going to be close and we doubt we’re heading for a recession as GDP will probably rise in Q3... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Japan Economics Update Will the conflict with Korea harm the economy? We suspect that the current tensions between Korea and Japan will subside after the Upper House elections. Even if Korean consumers decided to boycott Japanese products, the impact on Japan’s economy... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari warms on trade, Ramaphosa plans Eskom rescue Nigeria’s usually mercantilist government seemed more open to regional integration this week. But while Abuja’s decision to join the AfCFTA trade pact is positive, plans for a West African common... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea-Japan spat, Vietnam in the spotlight again The restrictions that Japan has announced on the sale of certain technology products to Korea could, if fully implemented, have a significant effect on Korea’s economy. However, past experience... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will an IMF deal solve Pakistan’s problems? The policy tightening and structural reforms that Pakistan has agreed to as the price of a deal with the IMF are likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the near-term but should also... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (May) Canadian exporters are doing well given the evidence of a marked deterioration in the global backdrop but, with the domestic and global manufacturing surveys deteriorating further in June, it is hard... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The sharp widening in the trade deficit to $55.5bn in May, from $51.2bn, suggests that net trade was a slightly bigger drag on second-quarter GDP growth than we had previously anticipated, with the... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (May) The record trade surplus in May was supported by the recent surge in iron ore prices so will not completely flow through to stronger net exports in Q2. Even so, we expect net trade to continue to make... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Hurdles ahead for the Mercosur-EU trade deal The preliminary trade deal between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and the EU, if implemented in full, would boost potential growth in the bloc, perhaps by as much as 0.75-1.0%-pt... 1st July 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dovish central banks set to cut rates further he subdued global outlook and weakness in domestic economic activity has caused us to revise down our forecasts for interest rates in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, annual GDP growth slowed... 1st July 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update External position looks secure India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q1 and, while significant policy loosening could cause imports to pick up over the coming quarters, we think that oil prices will remain low. This should... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
