US Economics Weekly Trump ramps up pressure on the Fed Despite cutting rates by 25bp this week, the Fed gave no indication that it is lining up another cut soon or that this will mark the start of the extended easing cycle investors are hoping for. But... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) June’s trade data suggest that net exports made a strong contribution to the likely 3.0% annualised increase in GDP in the second quarter. But signs of weaker growth elsewhere, combined with the... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update The trade war is about to hit China’s surplus The trade war between the US and China has made barely any difference to the scale of their bilateral trade imbalance, which was President Trump’s original concern. But China is reaching the limits of... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Trade dispute makes rate cut in Korea more likely Japan’s decision to remove Korea from its list of trusted trading partners looks set to cause significant short-term disruption to Korea’s economy, and is likely to prompt the Bank of Korea (BoK) to... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Trump brings trade tensions back to boiling point The announcement by President Donald Trump of further tariffs on Chinese imports has rattled the markets, but we have long suspected that it was only a matter of time before the trade dispute... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly US tariffs, PBOC easing, property controls President Trump’s latest threat to put further tariffs on Chinese goods is unlikely to trigger the hoped-for concessions from China. With the direct hit to China’s economy still manageable, President... 2nd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Jul.) Korea’s trade data suggest that a meaningful recovery in the external environment remained elusive at the start to the second half of the year, with weakness in the technology sector and slowing... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy lost momentum last quarter. Slower trade flows are more to blame for this than the recent protests, adding to downbeat signs on the health of the global economy. 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade growth set to stabilise at subdued rate May’s small rise in world trade volumes added to evidence that trade growth may have begun to stabilise following the slump that began in Q4 last year. But we see little sign of a recovery coming any... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Koreans boycott Japan, constitutional reform in doubt The economic impact of the Japan-Korea trade dispute is broadening as many South Koreans start to boycott Japan as a holiday destination. Booking of trips to Japan have halved and cancellations of... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Back to the future for FDI policy Measures announced during this month’s union budget to ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help to assuage concerns that policymakers have embraced a more insular view on... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for gas sector challenging The US may overtake Australia and Qatar to become the world’s largest exporter of LNG by 2024 as production costs in the US are lower than in Australia. For now, that’s not too big a concern as the... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto suggests wage growth is stagnating This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in pay hikes that aren’t any stronger than those agreed upon a year ago. That’s rather disappointing given how tight the labour market is. Meanwhile... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Positive newsflow on EM trade unlikely to last The US-China trade war truce, coming alongside Mercosur countries and Vietnam securing trade deals with the EU, has eased some of the worst fears about protectionism. But it’s far from certain that... 18th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit in June isn’t indicative of developments in trade volumes across the second quarter as import volumes outpaced export volumes. We expect the resulting drag... 18th July 2019 · 2 mins read
