Event Drop-In: Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix the global trading system? 27th March 2025, 3:00PM GMT There’s no shortage of proposals for fixing global trade imbalances – not least a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ suggested by the new head of Donald Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers. But what exactly needs…
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: Rate cuts and trade uncertainty We expect economic growth across the region to remain subdued, with most economies set to record below-trend and below-consensus growth this year. While lower interest rates will provide some support... 25th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Global Economics Update Reciprocal Tariffs: 10 Questions & Answers Because the concept of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ is merely a cover for the White House to impose whatever tariffs it likes, they pose a potentially considerable threat to world trade. This Update provides... 25th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated... 25th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Kenya-IMF disagreement, SARB’s uncertainty worries Kenya and the IMF abandoned talks over the ninth review of the country’s existing financing programs this week and, while a new deal may replace it, we think public debt concerns are likely to build... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Tariff-front running boost to China green exports fades China’s exports of the “New Three” technologies fell in early 2025 as the boost from front-running tariffs in the US appeared to fade. With tariffs only likely to climb and the adoption of clean... 21st March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2025) The latest data suggest that the world economy has made a relatively weak start to 2025. Activity in China has been soft so far this year amid a pullback in fiscal spending, while a surge in US... 21st March 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff front-running will be followed by export slump The recent strength in export volumes seems to reflect efforts to front-run US tariffs. While that is providing a boost to activity now, it will only magnify the hit to exports once those tariffs are... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Kuwait debt law, Morocco interest rates, ceasefire ends Kuwait’s new public debt law is likely to be passed soon and should allow for a looser fiscal stance, something that shouldn’t raise any concerns given the debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 5%. Elsewhere... 20th March 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Is India turning less protectionist? India has long had a relatively protectionist trade policy but, driven in part by the reciprocal tariff threat from the US, there appears to be a slight shift in approach from policymakers. Import... 20th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (March 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Metals tariffs in full effect; oil faces demand headwinds US steel and aluminium producers have different scopes to respond to the tariffs implemented this week, which is why we expect the price premium for aluminium in the US to persist for longer than... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
