UK Housing Market Update

House prices to slip back in the near term

The slight increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year appears to have reached a tipping point for demand. At the same time, the supply of homes being put up for sale has increased...

27th June 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (May 2024)

The 11.3% m/m decline in new home sales in May will steal all the headlines, but it largely reflected a significant upward revision to the April sales number, leaving us somewhat confused at the...

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025

Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation...

26th June 2024 · 20 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why are residential yields so low?

Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for...

25th June 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in April could be a sign that the increase in home listings this year has cooled the market. We think rising supply will eventually be...

25th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (May 2024)

Existing home sales were essentially flat in May which is somewhat puzzling given that pending home sales and home purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a month, both fell...

21st June 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

Southern metros set to outperform

The office sector faces another two years of value falls, led down by Seattle and San Francisco, where cumulative declines will be around 25%-30%. But our latest forecasts highlight the brighter spots...

20th June 2024 · 7 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (May 2024)

The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Jun. 2024)

The housing market was soft in May, with sales and prices edging down, but we expect conditions to improve over the rest of the year as the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates further and mortgage...

17th June 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding

With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of...

14th June 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2024)

Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the...

13th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum

The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

As the economy is set for a sustained period of below potential growth and core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the end of the year, the Bank of Canada’s June interest rate cut...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (May 2024)

The slight decline in the Halifax house price index in May confirmed that the increase in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. Mortgage rates have continued to...

7th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages

The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a...

6th June 2024 · 7 mins read