UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2024) Although consumer confidence has fallen ahead of the Budget, there is little evidence in September’s money and lending figures that Budget worries are having a big influence on households’ financial... 29th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 29th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Sep. 2024) The increase in new home sales in September was probably supported by the fall in mortgage rates last month. Rates have rebounded since then, however, which lends support to our view that new home... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2024) The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to outdo higher taxes A fall in mortgage rates from 4.5% now to around 3.6% in late 2025 may mean that, despite increases in taxes in the Budget on 30th October, house prices rise by 5.0% in 2025 rather than the consensus... 22nd October 2024 · 16 mins read
China Economics Weekly Baby steps to support housing won’t drive a turnaround While the Ministry of Housing introduced no significant new measures and gave little additional detail on plans to support the property sector during Thursday's press conference, it did announce an... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Sep. 2024) The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to... 18th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2024) Lower mortgage rates have provided a small boost to demand but, with new listings outpacing sales again in September, the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house prices will soon fall... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Flagging previous climate risk notes In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US. 14th October 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update MOF promises more spending but scale still unclear China’s Finance Ministry has pledged to significantly increase government debt, as well as ensure that RMB2.3trn in unused funds (equivalent to 1.6% of GDP) are spent by year-end. The latter should... 12th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate... 10th October 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2024) Surge in supply ahead of Budget may temporarily dampen prices A leap in the number of homes being put up for sale in September, perhaps due to fears of second-homes and rented properties being subject... 10th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2024) The third consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in September provides further evidence that the falls in mortgage rates are supporting demand and pushing up house prices. 7th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Introducing our House Price Leading Index Our new House Price Leading Index combines several leading indicators that capture the balance of supply and demand in Australia’s housing market and suggests that house price growth will continue to... 7th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing still struggling Activity in the housing market and broader economy have been struggling for momentum and give little indication that excess supply is dissipating, suggesting that there is still a strong case for a... 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
