US Commercial Property Update Flight to more affordable South set to continue Many households have left western metros in favor of those in the South over the past two years. With remote working looking like a permanent fixture of office-based jobs and affordability... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that... 16th July 2024 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jul 2024) The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend that should continue over the coming quarters. However, it will be a while before policymakers can be confident that... 15th July 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Higher interest rates won’t trigger housing meltdown While higher interest rates will make owner-occupied housing less affordable, the Bank of Japan will only tighten policy gradually so detached house prices will probably hold up well. By contrast... 15th July 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rate cuts will offer relief to housing this year The latest housing market data paint an almost ideal picture for the Bank of Canada, with activity improving, but little sign of a surge in house prices that could derail the downward trend in core... 12th July 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2024) Revival unlikely to materialise as soon as surveyors hope While demand continued to slip back in June, surveyors were optimistic it would soon pick up. Given elevated mortgage rates we suspect the... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness boosts odds of another rate cut There was little to be encouraged by this week, with labour market conditions continuing to soften, the business surveys weak and the real estate board data pointing to a risk of renewed falls in... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jun. 2024) As the first economic data release under a Labour government since 2010, the decline in Halifax house prices in June meant that Labour’s tenure got off to a slightly downbeat start. However, while we... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in June from its two-year high last month, but at 52.2 remains in expansionary territory. Both the commercial and housing balances retreated, with the... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The shape of Labour's housing policy The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (June 2024) The decline in mortgage rates back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase to rise by 5.1% m/m in June. That gain was tiny in the context of the ongoing three-year slump in... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recovery in residential investment to lose steam The rebound in residential investment over the past year will go into reverse in Q2, as housing starts and home sales slump again. We expect this weakness to persist thanks to a coming slump in new... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston and Chicago top the apartment rankings Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted... 2nd July 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2024) May’s money and lending data provided a bit further evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade. Together with our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 5.25%... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2024) Although house prices rose slightly in June, an earlier dip means they were flat on the quarter in Q2. With signs mortgage rates are causing demand to falter and that supply is improving, we think... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
