Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Muted housing recovery won’t prevent rapid rate cuts While we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by the most since the GFC over the coming year, housing affordability was never as stretched at the start of an easing cycle as it was at the start of... 19th November 2024 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rising household size will weigh on house prices A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low... 18th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Slower rate cuts won’t prevent solid house price gains Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2024) October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s 0.2% m/m rise in Halifax house prices suggests that the recent momentum in house prices has a bit further to run. And while the recent rises in swap rates suggest mortgage rates will soon... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 24) Lower borrowing costs should breathe some much-needed life into the market next year, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate 'lock-in' will continue to hold back activity... 6th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024) Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to... 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Oct. 24) After a strong September the headline CIPS construction PMI dropped back to 54.3 in October, although that still points to an expansion of construction activity. 6th November 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices was a bit weaker than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) and suggests that the recent falls in mortgage rates may be providing... 1st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Australia’s housing rally continued to lose steam in October. However, with the RBA set to cut interest rates from early-2025, there are good reasons not to be too bearish on the outlook for house... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Budget not a game-changer for the housing market The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside... 31st October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2024) A slightly healthier 0.3% rise in house prices in August does not change the fact that the market is rapidly cooling amid weak demand and growing supply. Therefore, we stand by our recent decision to... 29th October 2024 · 1 min read
