Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) Australia’s house prices have now fallen by 5% since the start of the current downturn and rapidly worsening affordability suggests they will fall by another 10%. 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The surprise jump in mortgage approvals in August probably reflected a rush to lock in mortgage offers as interest rates surged. There is a possibility that could be repeated next month, but... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) The stall in house prices in September was little surprise given the growing downward pressure on demand from rising mortgage rates. We suspect that, despite the reduction in stamp duty announced last... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Jul./Aug.) The fall in prices reported by the FHFA in July supports our view of a sustained decline over the next 12 months. With mortgage rates rising to above 6% in September, we think it is only a matter of... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Market moves make house price falls inevitable In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Housing Update to clients of our UK Economics service. The rise in market interest rates that has already happened will push up mortgage... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The implications of higher rates for the housing market Investors have revised up how far they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates as they continue to digest the tax cuts announced on Friday. This Update examines what the impact on the... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Developers finish more homes, renminbi unanchored In trying to anchor the renminbi to the dollar, the PBOC has now put itself at risk of repeating the mistakes that led to a messy sell-off in 2015. Meanwhile, there are early signs that efforts to... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tax reduction can’t rescue the market from higher rates The Chancellor took a rare, targeted approach to Stamp Duty in today’s vast package of tax cuts. The changes will remove the tax altogether for large numbers of buyers while retaining most of the... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing activity weakening but not collapsing The latest data suggest that the broader housing sector is coping relatively well with higher interest rates. While housing starts and renovations spending are starting to decline from elevated levels... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Higher rates make price falls even more likely The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast means that mortgage rates will rise further and faster than we previously envisaged, to a peak of 4.7% in March. The resulting higher cost of mortgage... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi mortgage lending a slow-burning risk Mortgage lending in Saudi Arabia has ramped up in recent years as the government has tried to push up homeownership among Saudi nationals. Banks are well positioned in the event of future property... 20th September 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) China’s economy held up slightly better than anticipated last month, but momentum still weakened relative to July amid renewed virus disruptions and factory closures due to power shortages. September... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q2 22) The detailed mortgage lending data for Q2 show solid lending volumes, growing leniency on deposit sizes and income multiples, and arrears at a record low. But the ongoing adjustment to higher interest... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Pandemic trends intact as outlook darkens London house prices and transactions have proven resilient to the headwinds of the cost-of-living crisis and rising mortgage rates so far. House price growth in London rose to 7.2% y/y in Q2, the... 13th September 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Aug.) The surprise increase in the construction PMI is little cause for optimism given it was driven by the reversal of an idiosyncratic fall in civil engineering activity a month earlier. Indeed, the... 6th September 2022 · 2 mins read
