UK Economics Update The implications of higher rates for the housing market Investors have revised up how far they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates as they continue to digest the tax cuts announced on Friday. This Update examines what the impact on the... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Developers finish more homes, renminbi unanchored In trying to anchor the renminbi to the dollar, the PBOC has now put itself at risk of repeating the mistakes that led to a messy sell-off in 2015. Meanwhile, there are early signs that efforts to... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tax reduction can’t rescue the market from higher rates The Chancellor took a rare, targeted approach to Stamp Duty in today’s vast package of tax cuts. The changes will remove the tax altogether for large numbers of buyers while retaining most of the... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing activity weakening but not collapsing The latest data suggest that the broader housing sector is coping relatively well with higher interest rates. While housing starts and renovations spending are starting to decline from elevated levels... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Higher rates make price falls even more likely The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast means that mortgage rates will rise further and faster than we previously envisaged, to a peak of 4.7% in March. The resulting higher cost of mortgage... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi mortgage lending a slow-burning risk Mortgage lending in Saudi Arabia has ramped up in recent years as the government has tried to push up homeownership among Saudi nationals. Banks are well positioned in the event of future property... 20th September 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) China’s economy held up slightly better than anticipated last month, but momentum still weakened relative to July amid renewed virus disruptions and factory closures due to power shortages. September... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q2 22) The detailed mortgage lending data for Q2 show solid lending volumes, growing leniency on deposit sizes and income multiples, and arrears at a record low. But the ongoing adjustment to higher interest... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Pandemic trends intact as outlook darkens London house prices and transactions have proven resilient to the headwinds of the cost-of-living crisis and rising mortgage rates so far. House price growth in London rose to 7.2% y/y in Q2, the... 13th September 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Aug.) The surprise increase in the construction PMI is little cause for optimism given it was driven by the reversal of an idiosyncratic fall in civil engineering activity a month earlier. Indeed, the... 6th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn starting to weigh on activity While the plunge in homebuilding last quarter reflected supply shortages more than weak demand, slumping home sales and house prices suggest that the downturn in dwellings investment has much further... 2nd September 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment completions set for multi-decade high The jump in multifamily housing starts in the first half of 2022 implies a surge in completions over the next couple of years to a multi-decade high. But while rental demand is now moderating, the... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun.) House price growth hit the buffers in June, with Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting a sharp slowdown in month-on-month gains. Higher mortgage interest rates have stretched affordability and cut housing... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) While mortgage approvals ticked up in July, that only reversed a fraction of their previous decline. And the drag on buyer demand from the ongoing increase in mortgage rates and surging energy bills... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Rental boom keeps construction elevated The surge in interest rates so far this year has contributed to a sharp decline in home sales but, so far at least, that has not weighed on construction activity. Housing starts averaged 279,000... 24th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long Australia’s house prices are now falling at a similar rate as they did during the 2017-19 downturn, which was the largest in the country’s modern history. Home sales remain well above pre-pandemic... 22nd August 2022 · 12 mins read