UK Housing Market Focus What will be the damage from 6% mortgage rates? A return to mortgage rates of around 6% for the first time since 2007 guarantees a renewed slump in mortgage lending and a further leg down in house prices. Were mortgage rates to be sustained at that... 20th June 2023 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (May.) Single-family starts saw the largest monthly increase in nearly three years in May, suggesting homebuilders have been responding to the recent rises in new home sales. We still expect a mild recession... 20th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive tightening will weigh on activity With inflation remaining very sticky, we now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to a peak of 4.85% by September, whereas we suspect that the RBNZ is done tightening. Extremely tight monetary policy... 20th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jun.) The recovery in house prices continued in May, with the sales-to-new listing ratio pointing to further gains ahead. Rising interest rates will have a more limited impact on home purchases than... 19th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Recovery in sentiment will be a false dawn At face value, the recent improvement in market sentiment indicators supports the view that the worst may be past for housing. But looking deeper, we think this largely reflects supply-side... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Growing pains in the gilt, mortgage and rental markets The surge in gilt yields above the level reached after the Truss/Kwarteng mini-budget last September has pushed mortgage rates even higher and illustrates that most of the drag on real activity and... 16th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly No relief for Australian mortgagors All signs are that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority is unlikely to revise its guidance for the minimum serviceability buffer banks must apply when assessing home loan applicants. As a... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The BoE's June meeting – Policy rates, mortgage rates and the macro outlook 1687442400 With inflation still running hot, the Bank of England has little choice to keep raising interest rates.
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q1 23) With mortgage rates surging, the number of loans issued to buy a home dropped sharply in Q1, with Buy-to-Let lending seeing the most severe drop. Those that did press ahead with a home purchase... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Conflicting signals for the Bank The fall in employment in May suggests the Bank might not need to follow its 25bp hike this week with another in July. But with employment among prime-age people continuing to rise strongly and house... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Pause in house price declines to prove temporary The seven-month run of house price declines recently ground to a halt, with the Case-Shiller index showing an increase in prices in both February and March. This was partly driven by the temporary... 9th June 2023 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Shift in risk appetite needed to revive property Rumoured plans to support housing demand by reducing the upfront cost of home purchases probably won’t be a game changer. New homes are already more affordable than they’ve ever been and yet... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Refinancing risks increase The recent upward revision to our mortgage rate forecast and the fact that the majority of those that need to refinance this year are on two-year fixes means that we are now more worried about the... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) The significant improvement in the RICS survey in May echoed the pause in house price falls in the past few months. But the survey also showed an increase in supply, which could make prices more... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (May) Mortgage applications for home purchase fell to their lowest level in almost 30 years in May, as a renewed rise in mortgage rates weighed on demand. This points to further near-term weakness for home... 7th June 2023 · 1 min read