UK Housing Market Update Revising up our 2024 house price forecast Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions... 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (August 2024) The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths when it comes to policy setting in the near term. With the New Zealand economy in a tailspin and inflation well on its way to target, the RBNZ... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Elevated housing inflation to keep Banxico hawkish Housing inflation has become an increasingly important driver of core services inflation in Mexico – a key concern of the central bank, Banxico. And we think that robust household income growth and a... 13th August 2024 · 13 mins read
US Housing Market Update Drop in mortgage rates won’t set the market alight We are sceptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market. Rates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Strong rebound in housing activity an upside risk to GDP Our forecast implies that the recovery in the housing market will both directly and indirectly add about 0.8% to the level of GDP by the end of 2026. But the risk is that the housing market rebound is... 9th August 2024 · 11 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2024) Increasing demand points to stronger price growth Tentative signs from July’s RICS survey add to the growing evidence that demand and prices are starting to pick up. And as lenders start to cut... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) With the economy now in a position of excess supply, we expect core inflation to continue to fall back to 2% by the middle of next year. With the Bank of Canada putting more emphasis on the downside... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jul. 2024) July was a disappointing month for mortgage activity overall, with earlier high borrowing costs causing home purchase applications to slide by 5.4% m/m. All the attention, however, will be on the last... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jul. 2024) After three months of stagnation, the bigger-than-expected rise in the Halifax house price index in July provides further evidence that house prices are bouncing back from the slight rise in mortgage... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease. However, the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates will offset some of that softness... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul 24) 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Rental growth will continue to lag income growth While faster wage growth should eventually result in a significant pick-up in rental inflation, it seems likely that rental growth will trail income growth for the foreseeable future. That means that... 5th August 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office conversion proceeding faster than expected We have been sceptical of the viability of conversion of excess office space into residential units. But the latest figures indicate that, despite marginal financials, there may have been more... 1st August 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Price Index (Jul. 2024) 1st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Australian house prices gained a bit of momentum in July. However, leading indicators continue to suggest that the housing market will cool markedly in the months ahead. Even if house price growth... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Elevated insurance premiums continue to hit valuations The rise in severe weather events over the last five years has left property insurers scrambling to price-in physical risks, causing premium growth to reach a 20-year high. While we think the worst is... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read