US Commercial Property Update Where will new apartment supply fall fastest? We expect the sharpest fall in apartment completions in 2025-26 in Boston, Denver, NYC and Seattle. Those cities will also be joined by Sunbelt markets where oversupply is already denting rents... 28th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all... 28th December 2023 · 0 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 2023 in review While we got mortgage rates and lending roughly right in 2023, house prices fell by less than we expected as longer mortgage terms, strong demand from cash buyers, and tight supply came together to... 28th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia Housing Watch Although house prices in Melbourne have started to fall anew, we doubt that they are the canary in the coal mine. A persistent shortfall in housing supply should ensure that house prices across most... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Nov. 2023) Existing home sales recovered somewhat in November from the 13-year low reached in October, as falling mortgage rates brought more buyers and sellers into the market. That chimes with the pickup in... 20th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Nov. 2023) The extreme lack of existing inventory on the market continued to support newbuild demand and construction activity in November, as single-family starts jumped to an 18-month high. The rise is at odds... 19th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Large downward shifts in interest rate expectations mean that mortgage rates will continue to fall for the next month or two. That will support some recovery in activity and means that price declines... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Dec.) November was a weak month all round for housing, with prices falling at a faster pace and starts plunging. Lenders are already cutting mortgage rates in response to the recent drop in bond yields... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack Recent falls in Treasury yields have bought mortgage rates back down from a peak of 8% in October to 7% earlier than we had anticipated, setting the scene for a recovery in housing market activity in... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 23) Declining mortgage rates have already generated a significant improvement in demand, with the new buyer enquiries and sales expectations balances recording their strongest readings for over a year and... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Downward trend in mortgage rates unlikely to continue Falls in financial market interest rate expectations mean that mortgage rates will drop to a six-month low in December. That will support a further recovery in housing market activity in the near term... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising arrears not translating into forced sales The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that the high cost of borrowing has continued to price many out of the market and made new BTL investment unattractive. But while arrears are rising... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year We suspect that both economies will narrowly avoid a recession but a prolonged period of below-trend growth will reduce price pressures and allow central banks to ease monetary policy again. We’ve... 13th December 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2023) The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in November mirrored the increase in the Nationwide index, confirming that house prices have not only stabilised, but are rising... 7th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Nov. 2023) Falling mortgage rates sparked a modest uptick in mortgage applications for home purchase in November. Recent falls in Treasury yields mean further falls in mortgage rates are imminent, so the trough... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Little relief in sight for first-time buyers First-time buyer (FTB) loan originations have been weak for over a year now. That’s mainly down to higher mortgage rates which have made buying too expensive for many younger adults. And as we think... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
