Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Stubborn rental inflation won’t prevent RBA rate cuts

In recent months, there have been growing concerns that the rapid rise in rental inflation will force the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates higher for longer. To be sure, leading indicators...

17th January 2024 · 15 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Jan.)

The decline in mortgage rates appears to be supporting demand, with home sales rebounding last month. While prices continued to fall in December, the sales-to-new listing ratio is now pointing to...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

US Housing Drop-In: What do falling mortgage rates mean for the market in 2024?

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US house prices saw strong gains in 2023, defying widespread expectations for them to fall as surging mortgage rates crimped supply.

UK Housing Market Update

Scotland & N.I. to outperform, while the South recovers

There was a wide disparity in house price growth across regions in 2023 and little reason to think that this year will be any different. Following the recent decline in mortgage rates, we suspect the...

15th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Key US housing market calls for 2024

We doubt that the modest fall in mortgage rates we anticipate this year will bring a great deal more stock onto the market. Because of that, the supply of existing homes will remain very tight, so we...

12th January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Approaching a turning point in construction

Note: Following the publication of government statistics on housing construction in Q3 2023 today, we are sending clients a revised version of this Update first published on 11 January. Barring Q2...

11th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

2023 in review

In what was an extremely volatile year for the housing market, we made two key forecasting errors. Firstly, we didn’t anticipate the extent of the rise in mortgage rates. Because of that, we...

5th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Housing market starting to improve

Conditions in the housing market seem to be improving, with the local real estate board data pointing to a big improvement in the home sales-to-new listing ratio in December. While the unseasonably...

5th January 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Lower interest rates pave the way for a stronger 2024

Our forecast of earlier Bank Rate cuts mean that mortgage rates will be significantly lower than we had anticipated this year, which will lead to a stronger recovery in demand from mortgaged buyers...

5th January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.)

The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.5 in November to 46.8 in December was driven by the increase in the housing balance, while the commercial reading fell further. Looking ahead, we...

5th January 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2023)

The big 1.1% m/m increase in the Halifax house price index confirms that falls in mortgage rates are translating into renewed increases in house prices. Given further recent falls in mortgage rates...

5th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Lending (Nov. 23)

The rise in mortgage approvals in November was little surprise given the sharp drop back in mortgage rates since July. Given recent further falls in swap rates, mortgage rates are likely to continue...

4th January 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Dec. 2023)

Mortgage rates dropping below 7% were the catalyst for a marked uptick in mortgage applications for home purchase in December.

3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Austin and Miami tumble down the apartment rankings

We expect apartment markets to perform poorly over the next two years, with all our 17 metros seeing capital values lower at the end of 2025 than they are now. However, there will be substantial...

2nd January 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 23)

Unchanged house prices in December ensured that over the course of 2023 they fell by much less than forecasters had expected. With mortgage rates falling, it is increasingly likely that house prices...

29th December 2023 · 3 mins read