UK Housing Market Update

Budget not a game-changer for the housing market

The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery

The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2024)

A slightly healthier 0.3% rise in house prices in August does not change the fact that the market is rapidly cooling amid weak demand and growing supply. Therefore, we stand by our recent decision to...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2024)

Although consumer confidence has fallen ahead of the Budget, there is little evidence in September’s money and lending figures that Budget worries are having a big influence on households’ financial...

29th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Sep. 2024)

The increase in new home sales in September was probably supported by the fall in mortgage rates last month. Rates have rebounded since then, however, which lends support to our view that new home...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2024)

The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to outdo higher taxes

A fall in mortgage rates from 4.5% now to around 3.6% in late 2025 may mean that, despite increases in taxes in the Budget on 30th October, house prices rise by 5.0% in 2025 rather than the consensus...

22nd October 2024 · 16 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Baby steps to support housing won’t drive a turnaround

While the Ministry of Housing introduced no significant new measures and gave little additional detail on plans to support the property sector during Thursday's press conference, it did announce an...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Sep. 2024)

The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to...

18th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2024)

Lower mortgage rates have provided a small boost to demand but, with new listings outpacing sales again in September, the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house prices will soon fall...

16th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Flagging previous climate risk notes

In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US.

14th October 2024 · 1 min read

China Economics Update

MOF promises more spending but scale still unclear

China’s Finance Ministry has pledged to significantly increase government debt, as well as ensure that RMB2.3trn in unused funds (equivalent to 1.6% of GDP) are spent by year-end. The latter should...

12th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November

The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data...

11th October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read