UK Commercial Property Outlook Budget measures to weaken property recovery The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over... 22nd November 2024 · 26 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2024) The modest rise in existing home sales in October reflects the earlier drop in mortgage rates over the summer and is unlikely to be repeated, as borrowing costs have since rebounded to 7%. 21st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 21st November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still... 20th November 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2024) Lower mortgage rates appear to be finally sparking a recovery in the housing market, with home sales soaring to a two-and-a-half-year high last month and the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to... 19th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Oct. 2024) The decline in housing starts in October was exactly as we had expected given the hit to construction in the South from recent hurricanes and should partially reverse in November. Beyond this, we... 19th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Muted housing recovery won’t prevent rapid rate cuts While we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by the most since the GFC over the coming year, housing affordability was never as stretched at the start of an easing cycle as it was at the start of... 19th November 2024 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rising household size will weigh on house prices A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low... 18th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Slower rate cuts won’t prevent solid house price gains Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2024) October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s 0.2% m/m rise in Halifax house prices suggests that the recent momentum in house prices has a bit further to run. And while the recent rises in swap rates suggest mortgage rates will soon... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 24) Lower borrowing costs should breathe some much-needed life into the market next year, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate 'lock-in' will continue to hold back activity... 6th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024) Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to... 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Oct. 24) After a strong September the headline CIPS construction PMI dropped back to 54.3 in October, although that still points to an expansion of construction activity. 6th November 2024 · 1 min read
