Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)

Australian house price gains eased only slightly in February. However, with home sales now softening noticeably, we suspect that the momentum behind the housing rebound will soon fade.

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse

A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024.

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec. 2023)

Another small rise in house prices in December suggests the extremely backward-looking data are still capturing a slowdown in price growth following the October peak in mortgage rates. That’s mainly...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts

The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Drop-In: UK Housing Market Outlook – Rates, sales, prices

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Now that mortgage rates have stopped falling, can the recovery in house prices continue? What will that mean for transaction levels and mortgage lending?

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will...

19th February 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Focus

Have we reached the end of the housing correction?

Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this...

14th February 2024 · 17 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Later rate cuts are the biggest risk to the recovery

Current fixed mortgage rates of around 4.6% are based on investors’ forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year. We think that rates will be reduced a bit faster...

13th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan. 24)

The strongest set of survey results since the tail end of the 2020-22 house price boom provided further evidence that lower mortgage rates have led to a recovery in demand. We suspect that respondents...

8th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2024)

The large 1.3% m/m gain in Halifax’s measure of house prices in January was the largest since June 2022, and suggests we are already almost halfway towards our forecast that house prices will rise by...

7th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.)

Although house price gains remained firm in January, we still expect them to soften in the months ahead. While rate cuts are on the horizon, they will do little to improve homebuying capacity.

1st February 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Nationwide House Price Index (Jan. 2024)

The larger than expected +0.7% m/m gain in house prices in January (consensus: +0.1%, Capital Economics: +0.4%) reflected improving public sentiment about the economy and the housing market and...

31st January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov. 2023)

The marked slowdown in house prices in November was the first sign of a response in prices to the spike in mortgage rates a month earlier.

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Regulatory changes won’t affect house price outlook

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched a consultation on changes to its macroprudential framework last week. In our view, the proposed tweaks are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the housing...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read