Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

Monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer

Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very...

27th March 2024 · 20 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

A pause in the fall in mortgage rates and a rise in the number of homes coming onto the market mean house price growth will stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut further...

26th March 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan. 2024)

The fairly large gain in house prices in January points to a rebound in price growth driven by the fall in mortgage rates towards the end of last year. Although its early in the year, today’s data fit...

26th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Renting to remain substantially cheaper than buying

As mortgage rates fall, we think the difference between the cost of buying and renting will narrow from the current all-time highs. But even by 2026, renting will remain by far the more cost-effective...

25th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

US Real Estate Drop-In: Will southern metros continue to lead?

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The pandemic-induced “great migration” fuelled rapid growth for apartment rents and house prices in southern metros.

US Housing Market Update

Southern house price outperformance to last

The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 24)

The February RICS Residential Market Survey revealed a jump in the supply of homes for sale which, paired with a slight rise in mortgage rates, means that house price gains are likely to stall in the...

14th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Rental market continues to contract

The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

The worst may be over for the Australian consumer

National accounts figures released this week showed that subdued household spending continued to weigh on the Australian economy in Q4. However, with a recovery in real disposable incomes taking shape...

8th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 24)

The smallest month-on-month increase in house prices since September suggested that the boost to house prices from the decline in mortgage rates since last summer is over. With mortgage rates now...

7th March 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

No end in sight to rising house prices

Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the...

5th March 2024 · 15 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

The origin of the government’s 300,000 target

We have traced the government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year in England back to the 2004 Barker Review. Rerunning the calculations two decades on suggests 385,000 new homes a year would...

4th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Nationwide House Price Index (Feb. 2024)

Another sizeable monthly increase in the Nationwide house price index in February confirmed that lower mortgage rates are feeding through to higher prices. But recent increases in interest rate...

1st March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)

Australian house price gains eased only slightly in February. However, with home sales now softening noticeably, we suspect that the momentum behind the housing rebound will soon fade.

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read