Event UK Drop-In: The BoE's June meeting – Policy rates, mortgage rates and the macro outlook 22nd June 2023, 3:00PM BST With inflation still running hot, the Bank of England has little choice to keep raising interest rates. But how high will policymakers take Bank Rate, and – with headlines dominated by news of 6%...
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) The significant improvement in the RICS survey in May echoed the pause in house price falls in the past few months. But the survey also showed an increase in supply, which could make prices more... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s economic woes rumble on The latest activity data for Korea were downbeat and support our view that the economy is set to weaken in the second quarter. Meanwhile, house prices fell further in May and are now down about 10%... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing sector creates headaches for the RBA Although house prices in Australia made further gains in May, we don't think that's a sign that the broader economy will remain resilient in the face of monetary tightening. Indeed, residential... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (May 23) House prices flattened off in May after a rise in April. But with mortgage rates now on their way back up we suspect that the stabilisation in prices over the last couple of months will soon give way... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) With house prices having risen for the third month in a row, there is a growing risk to our view that the housing downturn has further to run. Nonetheless, with rising interest rates set to squeeze... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar.) In line with the stronger-than-expected economic data releases at the start of the year, house prices proved resilient in March. But we expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, which will... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rise in mortgage rates will trigger renewed downturn The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast suggests that mortgage rates will return to a similar peak as last autumn by the end of the year. That would undermine the recent pick-up in mortgage... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation (May 23) The larger than anticipated rebound in mortgage approvals in March and a slowdown (or even partial reversal) of house price falls suggested that the housing market downturn may have ended much earlier... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Longer mortgage terms ease affordability constraints Borrowing over a longer period significantly reduces monthly mortgage payments. So the accelerated shift towards loans with a term of 35 or 40 years rather than 25 has probably helped to mitigate the... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) In contrast to signs of a stabilisation in house prices and sales volumes in other indicators, the RICS survey remained downbeat in April. In particular, the renewed fall in the new buyer enquiries... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) The small slip in the Halifax House Price index in April bought it a little more in line with the Nationwide figures. But prices remain remarkably resilient to the largest rise in mortgage rates since... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tight supply supporting house prices While home sales have plummeted, house prices have fallen just 3% so far and eked out a small gain in February. We think this reflects the role that tight supply is playing in this downturn, with the... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
