Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate... 10th October 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2024) Surge in supply ahead of Budget may temporarily dampen prices A leap in the number of homes being put up for sale in September, perhaps due to fears of second-homes and rented properties being subject... 10th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2024) The third consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in September provides further evidence that the falls in mortgage rates are supporting demand and pushing up house prices. 7th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Introducing our House Price Leading Index Our new House Price Leading Index combines several leading indicators that capture the balance of supply and demand in Australia’s housing market and suggests that house price growth will continue to... 7th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) With new listings rising rapidly, the housing market is shifting in favour of buyers. Accordingly, we think house price growth will ease further in the months ahead. 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Price Index (Sep. 2024) September’s 0.7% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices suggests that August’s 0.2% m/m fall was just a blip and that the recent falls in mortgage rates are supporting house prices. What’s more, the... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By... 25th September 2024 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Update Sellers lose grip on the market Increased supply and weak demand are both contributing to the slowdown in house price growth. The recent sharp drop in mortgage rates should cause the market to retighten, but it will take time for... 24th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2024) Another muted 0.2% rise in house prices in July adds to the sense that the housing market is cooling amid weak buyer demand and growing supply. As price growth continues to moderate quickly with no... 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect as the loosening cycle really kicks off We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the likely pace and extent of interest rate cuts and their implications now that the US Fed has joined the party. (See a recording here.) This... 23rd September 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) We doubt the small fall in Nationwide house prices in August was the start of a renewed downturn. Surveys suggest the recent declines in mortgage rates have led to an increase in housing demand, while... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug. 2024) Rising demand points to faster house price growth August’s RICS survey provided further evidence that housing demand is picking up in response to the recent falls in mortgage rates. What’s more, our... 12th September 2024 · 3 mins read
