Asia Economics Weekly MAS on hold, inflation concerns in the Philippines. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Friday, but with the economy struggling and inflationary pressures falling back, we are expecting... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to... 5th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: weak activity data but inflation worries mount The latest activity data from Korea were downbeat. Although industrial production grew strongly, the manufacturing PMIs, along with the export figures and retail sales data, all point to continued... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade & ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Aug. 23) 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Slowing momentum in activity, the recent decline in employment, and the sharp falls in core CPI and services inflation in August are clear signs that higher interest rates are weighing more heavily on... 4th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Investment downturn to push euro-zone into recession The resilience of investment in the euro-zone to higher interest rates and slowing economic growth at the start of the year appears to have been driven in part by the gradual clearing of backlogs in... 4th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The drop in retail sales in August and weakness in the final PMIs for September are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will fall into recession in the second half of 2023. 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Surveys signal a slide in the economy While some measures of optimism have been improving, the majority of the survey evidence suggests the economy is weakening and the chances of the mild recession we have been forecasting have increased... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s next move will be down With its assessment of the balance of risks broadly unchanged, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at its meeting today. Although the Bank will likely retain its tightening bias, we... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: rate cuts won’t prevent a sharp slowdown Brazil’s monetary easing cycle will probably lead to higher spending in interest rate sensitive areas such as furniture and appliances, autos and construction materials. But that won’t be enough to... 3rd October 2023 · 14 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (August 2023) The 0.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in August failed to fully offset the decline in July and suggests that the sector was as a drag on growth in Q3. Services sectors are faring better... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Sep. 23) The September release of PMIs for the Middle East and North Africa showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the Gulf economies remained strong up at the end of Q3, and this is likely to... 3rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) India’s manufacturing PMI moderated in September but remained high. However, there are reasons to think a further slight cooling in manufacturing activity lies in store over the coming months. 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: drag from weak construction set to continue Construction spending in Korea is falling sharply as developers respond to an oversupply of new homes by cutting back on new projects. The sector’s weakness will remain a major drag on economic growth... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
