China Activity Monitor CAP: Policy support underpins reacceleration Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth slowed in Q3. But the economy was regaining momentum at the end of the quarter, led by gains in the service sector. With stimulus still flowing... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Oct.) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the Composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and lower inflation The October flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity got off to a weak start in Q4, especially in Europe. And with weak activity taking some of the steam out of labour markets and inflation... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 24th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2023) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in October left it well into contractionary territory and the breakdown provides further evidence that price pressures are easing. The survey will... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Oct. 2023) The composite activity PMI inched up from 48.5 in September to 48.6 in October after five months of declines. But that still leaves the PMI at a level that, historically, has been consistent with a... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s crisis nearing a crunch point Tunisia is stuck in a deep economic and political crisis, and with the IMF’s staff-level agreement yet to be approved, and it is only likely to get worse. We have long held the view that Tunisia is... 23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Third-quarter strength unlikely to last The apparent strength of third-quarter GDP growth won’t convince the Fed to resume hiking its policy rate, particularly with the ongoing surge in long-term bond yields presenting a growing threat to... 20th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal support coming in Israel, Tusk’s election win There remains significant uncertainty over how the Israel-Hamas war will evolve, but developments this week confirm that fiscal policy will be loosened as policymakers provide support to the military... 20th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB set for a hold, new r* projections Further evidence of economic weakness and easing inflationary pressures in this week's data releases suggest that a "hold" is now a done deal for next week's ECB's meeting. Meanwhile, the tentative... 20th October 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP breakdown suggests service sector still struggling The official GDP figures show a marked acceleration in quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3. But a closer look at the data suggests that this may be a statistical mirage. We think that growth slowed last... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The renewed surge in long-term Treasury yields illustrates that the full impact of Fed tightening is still feeding through, and we continue to expect economic growth to slow sharply over the coming... 20th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for September suggest that the economy started on its road to recovery in Q3. With inflation and interest rates falling, we expect GDP growth to... 20th October 2023 · 2 mins read
