China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q3) and state CPI (October) The small decline in German GDP in the third quarter and upward revision to the previous two quarters means the economy is not doing quite as poorly as anticipated. But GDP has essentially been... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden GDP (Q3) Preliminary data released this morning show that the Swedish economy flatlined in Q3 (0.0% q/q) after contracting sharply in the second quarter (-0.8%). (See Chart 1.) This slightly stronger-than... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy prices still a headwind for Germany European natural gas prices have fallen a long way from their 2022 peaks and the possibility of another energy crisis this winter now looks remote. However, prices are still much higher than they were... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India’s manufacturing ambitions constrained by energy India’s government is pushing ahead with efforts to make the country a key link in global manufacturing supply chains. But the increasing strain that the power network has come under over the past... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April The economic landscape in Taiwan is shifting. Domestic demand is now cooling but exports have rebounded. Looking ahead though, renewed weakness in exports appears likely and we expect below trend... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Uptick in global trade unlikely to be sustained for long Global goods trade rose slightly in August and timelier data point to further gains in September. But we expect global trade to fall again in due course as economic downturns in several advanced... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Rapid Response: Spain GDP (Q3 2023) GDP data for Spain in Q3 were a bit stronger than expected and showed that the economy was proving more resilient in the face of high interest rates than anticipated. But the outlook is still weak. 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB policy rates at a plateau Following today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, the ECB’s tightening cycle appears to be over. We think that rates will stay at their current levels well into next year. The Governing... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q3) Economic growth in Korea was stronger than expected in Q3 but we think the economy is set to weaken in the near term as support from external demand fades while tight fiscal and monetary policy... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration is unlikely to be enough to prevent a mild recession, with GDP contracting... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak housing market to squeeze spending and investment We suspect that more weakness in the housing market will weigh on real GDP by further reducing residential investment and consumer spending. This is one reason why we think the economy is close to a... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending data remain consistent with recession The euro-zone money and credit data have been very weak all year and September’s data, released this morning, were more of the same. The activity surveys are now turning downwards too, supporting our... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
