Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing coming sooner than most expect Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease... 7th December 2023 · 32 mins read
US Economic Outlook Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 6th December 2023 · 16 mins read
ECB Watch Bank to set the stage for 2024 rate cuts Policymakers will have no choice but to acknowledge next week that they may achieve their inflation target earlier than they had anticipated. Some may push back against expectations that the Bank will... 6th December 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about 2024 answered We held two online Drop-In sessions today to discuss the outlook for 2024 and the risks to our forecasts. (See a recording here .) This Update summarises the answers to several of the questions that... 5th December 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economic Outlook Solid growth in run-up to election India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2023) Brazil’s economy fared better than expected in Q3, expanding by 0.1% q/q, but the bigger picture is that the strong growth seen in the first half of the year has come to an end. 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response November PMIs The batch of PMIs for November from the Middle East and North Africa showed that non-hydrocarbon private sectors in the Gulf have sustained strong momentum at the end of 2023. Elsewhere, while there... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q in Q3 and more timely indicators point to a weak end to 2023, not helped by recent disruptions to the port and freight network. But there are reasons to... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt ratio will keep falling While there have been growing concerns about public finances in some euro-zone countries recently, prospects for Greece’s debt are quite bright. Steady economic growth, large primary surpluses and low... 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
