Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: Global AI spending will drive rapid growth Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s. 9th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to continued weak activity The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that the drag on lending growth from tight monetary policy continued to ease. But the data remain consistent with broadly stagnant consumption and declines in... 9th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update A close race for fourth place The slump in the yen has resulted in Germany overtaking Japan as the world’s 3rd largest economy at market exchange rates. We expect Japan to overtake Germany yet again in the early 2030s as the yen... 9th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: strong recovery set to weaken Uganda’s strong recent economic recovery is facing domestic and external headwinds, including international condemnation of the government’s Anti-Homosexuality Bill – and the associated impact on... 8th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will remain close to recession in the near term. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB is very... 8th April 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The second consecutive large monthly rise in German industrial production in February confirms the sector has started the year on a better note. But we still expect it to struggle over the rest of... 8th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q4) & Activity Data (Feb.) The 4.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q4 was slightly below expectations but it followed an upwards revision to growth in Q3 (to 5.7%) and suggests that the economy continued to run hot at the end of... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA weak demand, Nigeria electricity, Kenya rates South Africa’s disappointing PMI for March supports our view that the economic recovery this year will be subdued. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s reduction in household electricity subsidies will help its... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT decision on a knife edge Inflation in Thailand was still negative last month, according to data released earlier today. With recent activity subdued, the central bank will have to change tack and start loosening policy soon... 5th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Beware of the seasonal effects in inflation data Data released this week showed that the headline inflation rate in the euro-zone fell in March, to 2.4%, but that prices rose by 0.8% a monthly basis. However, the increase in prices was largely due... 5th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Upturn in money growth tallies with stronger activity Whether you’re a monetarist or not, it’s hard to ignore that the surge and plunge in the money supply preceded the surge and plunge in inflation. An imminent rebound in the money supply supports the... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Indian bulls rage while elephants go for a walk Positive news on India's economy continues to roll in and that is being reflected in the performance of the stock market. But amid the optimism, this week we published an in-depth report highlighting... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Firm population growth creates quandary for the RBA The minutes of the RBA’s March meeting revealed that the Board has now dropped its tightening bias. However, we suspect it will be a while before the Bank can be confident it has broken the back of... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update The economic effects of the drought in southern Africa El Niño is causing severe drought across much of southern Africa, which is likely to weigh on GDP, push up inflation and strain balance sheets. South Africa has also suffered water shortages, albeit... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
