Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt fiscal tightening, PMIs, regional tensions brewing

The announcement by Egypt’s government of a raft of price hikes will help to offset the impact on the budget position from surging debt servicing costs and lay the ground for getting an improved IMF...

4th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Final PMIs (December 2023)

The final Composite PMI for the euro-zone in December was revised up significantly from the flash estimate of 47.0 to 47.6, meaning that it was unchanged compared to the November reading. Nonetheless...

4th January 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.)

Despite the modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.4 in December, from 46.7, the survey indicates that conditions in the factory sector remain unusually weak and that output is likely to...

3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s economic struggles look set to persist

In the past few years, Egypt’s economy has been hit by the successive impacts of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and, more recently, currency devaluations. With further currency falls on the cards...

3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMI (Dec.)

The manufacturing PMI survey for December suggests that activity lost some momentum at the end of 2023. That said, we think that growth in the sector is likely to hold up well in 2024 and that India...

3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Asia Drop-In: Taiwan election 2024 – Domestic and global implications

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In a busy year for elections worldwide, Taiwan’s is likely to be among the most consequential.

Event

Drop-In: 2024 EM Outlook – Big growth divergence in a big election year

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The past 12 months have seen marked divergence in growth across emerging markets economies, as well as the start of easing cycles among some of their central banks.

Global Economics Update

Weak PMIs suggest soft start for industry in 2024

Although the manufacturing PMIs have overstated the weakness of industry for a while, the big picture from December’s surveys was that global industrial activity was barely growing at the end of 2023...

2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing ends the year on a soft note

The emerging markets manufacturing PMIs for December were a mixed bag. The headline index stagnated at the aggregate EM level and remained below 50 in over half of the countries in our sample. Price...

2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Increase in bank lending won’t stop ECB from cutting

Data released this morning showed that bank lending in the euro-zone picked up towards the end of last year. But we doubt that this is the start of a sustained turnaround. We expect the impact of...

2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.)

The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Turkey for December suggest that industrial sectors ended 2023 on a relatively soft note. But Russia remained the outlier, where the...

2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade (December)

The December PMIs for most economies in Emerging Asia stood well inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory...

2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

PMIs (Dec.)

The official and Caixin PMIs have moved in opposite directions recently. But taken together, they point to some improvement in economic momentum in December thanks to gains in services and...

2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Singapore GDP (Q4, adv)

Economic growth in Singapore accelerated in Q4 but the economy is set to enter a period of renewed weakness in the near term as support from external demand fades while domestic demand remains weak.

2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Vietnam: economic weakness to prompt rate cuts in 2024

GDP growth in Vietnam picked up in Q4 but this strength is unlikely to last if, as we expect, exports weaken and commercial banks pull back on lending in response to a sharp rise in non-performing...

29th December 2023 · 3 mins read