Emerging Markets Economics Update Expect more EM growth divergence in 2024 Aggregate EM GDP growth is set to slow in 2024, but as important as the overall story is understanding the different cycles that are playing out at a country level. We think some countries which... 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Why has FDI into India slumped? The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India over the past year was in part a consequence of the rise in global interest rates and the worsening global economic backdrop... 9th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update German industry still has further to fall Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov.) Although retail sales bounced back with a vengeance in November, that result largely reflected a one-off boost from Black Friday sales. With underlying momentum in consumer spending weaker than the... 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: will nearshoring live up to the hype? The optimism about Mexico’s economic prospects from the “nearshoring” of supply chains looks overdone in our view. Sectors where Mexico is already well established, such as autos and some electronics... 8th January 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.) & EC Survey (Dec.) The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have contracted than expanded in the fourth quarter of last year. They also suggest that while... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and point to regional activity strengthening at the end of 2023... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high in December, helped by an easing of loadshedding. Alongside hopes that recent freight problems are past the worst, this chimes with our view... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market starting to improve Conditions in the housing market seem to be improving, with the local real estate board data pointing to a big improvement in the home sales-to-new listing ratio in December. While the unseasonably... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Are we too downbeat on the economy in 2024? The economic news over the past week has highlighted three upsides to our forecast that the economy will stagnate in 2024. First, the fall in some mortgage rates to below 4% means the effect of future... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak end to last year does not bode well Data released this week showed that core price pressures in the euro-zone continued to fade at the end of last year as activity remained subdued. This supports our view that a weak economy this year... 5th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF deal, Chile’s recovery, Nafta turns 30 President Milei's stabilisation plan for Argentina's economy makes it more likely that the IMF will agree to relax the current programme criteria when officials from both sides meet later today. But... 5th January 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Remittances to boost current account position Data from the World Bank show that India remained the world's largest recipient of remittances in 2023. While growth in remittances will slow a touch in 2024, they should remain an important source of... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the RBA will ease sooner than most expect Although the analyst consensus expects the RBA to cut rates only in September, we're sticking with our view that the RBA will loosen policy as early as May. For one thing, the household cash flow... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
