Latin America Economics Update Panama’s next president to face growing fiscal challenge José Raúl Mulino, the front-runner in Panama’s presidential election scheduled for Sunday, has pledged to reinvigorate growth. But as we’ve been arguing for some time, the economy’s time as Latin... 29th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Why is productivity so weak outside the US? Productivity growth in most advanced economies has been much weaker than that in the US since the pandemic. This partly reflects the relative weakness of demand, coupled with a degree of labour... 29th April 2024 · 17 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey & Germany State CPI (April 2024) The weaker-than-expected EC business and consumer survey for Ap ril is a reminder that the euro-zone economy is still weak. Meanwhile, the survey and inflation figures for Germany and Spain confirm... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in April, but our regional GDP-weighted measure of sentiment rose to a fresh two-year high... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine gets a boost, but funding fatigue still a risk The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a... 26th April 2024 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Have soft landing hopes been dashed? The slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth to 1.6% annualised, from 3.4%, was more marked than expected, but it was principally due to a bigger drag from the net exports and inventories categories. With... 26th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s drought, Argentina’s anti-austerity protests Recent rainfall has provided some relief to drought-hit Colombia, but with reservoir levels still perilously low, risks to hydropower generation - and consequently activity and inflation - continue to... 26th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery in activity won’t stop ECB rate cuts Survey data released this week suggest that the euro-zone is coming out of recession. But with activity still very weak and wage growth appearing to have eased so far this year, we remain comfortable... 26th April 2024 · 11 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Mar.) The slightly bigger-than-expected 3.7% annualised first-quarter gain in the core PCE deflator was principally because January’s gain was revised up to 0.50% from 0.45%. Nevertheless, the 0.32%... 26th April 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Extreme weather and AI risks in the spotlight There has been more good news on India’s economy over the past couple of weeks, but two key near and medium-term risks that we have previously highlighted - extreme weather and the emergence of... 26th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more likely to hike than not The case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling. Underlying inflation is all but certain to overshoot its current forecast. Services inflation, which has long been a concern... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Regional growth appears to have picked up in Q1 and we think that will continue, helped by an improved external environment. But inflation is set to fall back more slowly than previously expected... 25th April 2024 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s privatisation drive, dollarisation in Lebanon Egypt’s latest privatisation drive appears to have stalled after targets were watered down. The government doesn’t face the same need to secure revenues as it did recently, but privatisation is still... 25th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why are Spanish house prices rising? Spanish house prices have risen 5% over the last two years despite rising interest rates. The relative affordability of houses in Spain is the main reason that the market remains strong, but the... 25th April 2024 · 4 mins read
