Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Revisiting Dubai’s GRE debts We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The... 16th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Surveys show inflation expectations are still too high The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys continue to flash warning signs about the outlook for the economy and labour market. The normalisation of inflation expectations remains... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa IRP, Transnet cash, World Bank optimism South Africa presented its draft energy plan, which brought bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the country’s finance... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Household consumption will remain weak this year Household consumption in the euro-zone looks set for another bad year. We think that it will be broadly flat in the first half of 2024, keeping overall GDP growth close to zero for the next few... 12th January 2024 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2023) The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.2%) increases the chances that the economy escaped a recession in 2023. And with rates for new mortgages now falling and lower... 12th January 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 23) 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the... 11th January 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s economy stuck in malaise Economic growth in Jordan has been sluggish for the best part of a decade and the outlook doesn't look much brighter. While the renewed IMF programme will help to contain external strains, the Israel... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Loan defaults unlikely to hinder economic recovery The lagged effects of the weak economy and high interest rates may mean that loan default rates rise in the coming months. But the prospect of interest rate cuts later this year will mean they won’t... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is the worst behind us for business bankruptcies? The surge in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy filings last quarter is not as bad as it looks, as many of them related to the WeWork failure. Excluding those, bankruptcies trended lower at the end of... 10th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will... 10th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update State & local government spending boom set to end The surge in spending by state & local governments has boosted economic growth over the past year but, with tax revenues falling back in recent quarters, that boom is now set to fade. 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
