China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) Poland’s retail sales data for December suggest that consumer spending weakened at the end of last year, although the industrial sector held up better than expected and we think that the economic... 22nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New year, no cheer There was little for the Bank of Canada to be encouraged by this week, with evidence of a further deterioration in the economy yet little sign of a fall in inflation expectations or downward pressure... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the soft landing in jeopardy? This week’s stronger-than-expected news on inflation and weaker-than expected news on activity doesn’t mean that a soft landing for the economy is no longer the most likely outcome. Instead, there’s... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Swiss policymakers may cut rates before ECB ECB policymakers have set out their stall ahead of next Thursday’s meeting and will continue to push back against expectations of early rate cuts – notwithstanding mounting evidence that the economy... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector doing better, births may rise in 2024 After years of being buffeted by trade tensions and a domestic regulatory crackdown, China’s tech sector has finally regained a bit of momentum recently. And although China’s population will shrink... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q4, advanced estimate) GDP declined during the fourth quarter and we expect activity to remain weak in the near term amid elevated interest rates, a cooling labour market, soft foreign demand and subdued commodity prices. 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to push back against early rate cut bets The ECB is certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week, leaving the deposit rate at 4%, and we expect Christine Lagarde to push back against expectations for rate cuts in the first half of this... 18th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s activity data for South Africa show that while economic headwinds are easing, growth is still very soft. Still, less electricity outages and restrictive fiscal policy should allow for a... 18th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 18th January 2024 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The muted rise in manufacturing output in December shows that the sector continues to struggle, even as consumption growth remains strong. 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec.) China’s economy lost momentum in Q4 according to the official GDP figures. But we suspect that’s because they failed to acknowledge the full extent of the weakness earlier in the year. 17th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect GDP growth to slow to a crawl this year, weighed down by weak consumption growth and... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
