Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave...

31st January 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be...

31st January 2024 · 0 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with...

31st January 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023...

31st January 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Nov.)

31st January 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Panama to lose its shine amid worsening growth outlook

Panama’s time as a Latin American growth star is set to come to an end this year. This will have a knock-on effect on the government’s revenues and means that the public debt ratio is set to rise...

31st January 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Tight real policy stance supports case for big rate cuts

The drop in inflation across advanced economies has caused real interest rates to rise by even more than nominal rates. While there are various ways to measure real interest rates, they all confirm...

31st January 2024 · 17 mins read

RBA Watch

A dovish pivot is on the horizon

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates on hold at its February meeting. But as inflation plunges, the case for policy to remain restrictive for a prolonged period looks increasingly...

31st January 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Annual GDP (2023)

The weaker-than-expected 0.2% expansion in Polish GDP over 2023 as a whole suggests that the economy struggled at the end of the year. We think this weakness will prove temporary and that activity...

31st January 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Taiwan GDP (Q4)

GDP growth in Taiwan accelerated further in Q4, and we expect growth to remain strong over the coming quarters, with robust growth in exports of products linked to AI set to more than offset the drag...

31st January 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Flash GDP (Q4 2023)

The flash estimate of Saudi Arabia’s GDP for Q4 of last year showed that the economy expanded by 0.4% q/q, the first positive outturn since the period a year before. We expect the recovery to continue...

31st January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s growth picked up only marginally in Q4, underperforming most expectations. And although we foresee some further upside as foreign visitors and workers continue to return, we think the...

31st January 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Philippines GDP (Q4)

GDP growth remained well above trend in Q4 but we don’t expect this strength to last as the deceleration in credit growth feeds through to domestic demand while the external sector continues to...

31st January 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

PMIs (Jan.)

There were some gains in economic momentum at the start of 2024, at least judging by the modest rise in the PMIs. Admittedly, the survey readings are still depressed by historic standards, but this...

31st January 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec. 23)

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read