Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April The economic landscape in Taiwan is shifting. Domestic demand is now cooling but exports have rebounded. Looking ahead though, renewed weakness in exports appears likely and we expect below trend... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Uptick in global trade unlikely to be sustained for long Global goods trade rose slightly in August and timelier data point to further gains in September. But we expect global trade to fall again in due course as economic downturns in several advanced... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Rapid Response: Spain GDP (Q3 2023) GDP data for Spain in Q3 were a bit stronger than expected and showed that the economy was proving more resilient in the face of high interest rates than anticipated. But the outlook is still weak. 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB policy rates at a plateau Following today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, the ECB’s tightening cycle appears to be over. We think that rates will stay at their current levels well into next year. The Governing... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea GDP (Q3) Economic growth in Korea was stronger than expected in Q3 but we think the economy is set to weaken in the near term as support from external demand fades while tight fiscal and monetary policy... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration is unlikely to be enough to prevent a mild recession, with GDP contracting... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak housing market to squeeze spending and investment We suspect that more weakness in the housing market will weigh on real GDP by further reducing residential investment and consumer spending. This is one reason why we think the economy is close to a... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending data remain consistent with recession The euro-zone money and credit data have been very weak all year and September’s data, released this morning, were more of the same. The activity surveys are now turning downwards too, supporting our... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Policy support underpins reacceleration Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth slowed in Q3. But the economy was regaining momentum at the end of the quarter, led by gains in the service sector. With stimulus still flowing... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Oct.) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the Composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and lower inflation The October flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity got off to a weak start in Q4, especially in Europe. And with weak activity taking some of the steam out of labour markets and inflation... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 24th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2023) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in October left it well into contractionary territory and the breakdown provides further evidence that price pressures are easing. The survey will... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read