Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q1 2024)

South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the first quarter of the year and the latest evidence suggests that fragility has continued into Q2. A less acute drag from loadshedding should support...

4th June 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

Exports to remain a near-term prop to growth

Global demand is giving a bigger boost to China’s economy than we had anticipated this year and foreign tariffs will make little difference to aggregate export performance in the near term. We now...

4th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Window for policy tightening is closing

A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to...

4th June 2024 · 18 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven

The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs point to a rebound in global industry in Q2

The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry has continued to gather momentum so far in Q2 and that price pressures have increased somewhat. But that probably won’t...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth

The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2024)

The drop in the ISM manufacturing index in May adds to the sense that the economy is losing momentum, while the drop back in the prices paid index should soothe concerns about a potential renewed rise...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

France rating downgrade won’t be the last

With the government debt-to-GDP ratio likely to trend up over the medium term, and the budget deficit set to stay above 3% of GDP, we suspect that France will be subject to further rating downgrades...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI plummeted in May and, while we expect conditions to improve as the electricity situation continues to stabilise, alongside recent activity data it underlines the...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (May)

The manufacturing PMIs for May show a divergence in the region, with conditions improving slightly in Czechia and Russia’s economy continuing to boom. But industry weakened sharply in Poland and...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May)

The Manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Asia remained weak in May but have been a poor guide to the hard data on activity over the past year anyway. However, the PMIs have been a decent guide to price...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

GDP data unlikely to sway the Bank

The weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP data and downward revision to fourth-quarter growth caused markets to price in a higher chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates next week...

31st May 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Trump conviction won't sway the election

We doubt that Donald Trump’s New York felony conviction on charges of falsifying business documents will have any significant impact on the presidential election campaign.

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB to cut rates; SNB to sell FX assets?

The key event next week will be Thursday’s ECB meeting when we think the Bank will cut the deposit rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. But strong services inflation in May and strong wage growth in Q1 may...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Q1)

The 1.7% annualised gain in GDP in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for an above-potential 2.8% increase. With consumption growth looking much stronger than expected...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read