US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) Despite the modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.4 in December, from 46.7, the survey indicates that conditions in the factory sector remain unusually weak and that output is likely to... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economic struggles look set to persist In the past few years, Egypt’s economy has been hit by the successive impacts of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and, more recently, currency devaluations. With further currency falls on the cards... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI survey for December suggests that activity lost some momentum at the end of 2023. That said, we think that growth in the sector is likely to hold up well in 2024 and that India... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Taiwan election 2024 – Domestic and global implications 1705309200 In a busy year for elections worldwide, Taiwan’s is likely to be among the most consequential.
Event Drop-In: 2024 EM Outlook – Big growth divergence in a big election year 1704987000 The past 12 months have seen marked divergence in growth across emerging markets economies, as well as the start of easing cycles among some of their central banks.
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs suggest soft start for industry in 2024 Although the manufacturing PMIs have overstated the weakness of industry for a while, the big picture from December’s surveys was that global industrial activity was barely growing at the end of 2023... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends the year on a soft note The emerging markets manufacturing PMIs for December were a mixed bag. The headline index stagnated at the aggregate EM level and remained below 50 in over half of the countries in our sample. Price... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Increase in bank lending won’t stop ECB from cutting Data released this morning showed that bank lending in the euro-zone picked up towards the end of last year. But we doubt that this is the start of a sustained turnaround. We expect the impact of... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Turkey for December suggest that industrial sectors ended 2023 on a relatively soft note. But Russia remained the outlier, where the... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade (December) The December PMIs for most economies in Emerging Asia stood well inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Dec.) The official and Caixin PMIs have moved in opposite directions recently. But taken together, they point to some improvement in economic momentum in December thanks to gains in services and... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore GDP (Q4, adv) Economic growth in Singapore accelerated in Q4 but the economy is set to enter a period of renewed weakness in the near term as support from external demand fades while domestic demand remains weak. 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: economic weakness to prompt rate cuts in 2024 GDP growth in Vietnam picked up in Q4 but this strength is unlikely to last if, as we expect, exports weaken and commercial banks pull back on lending in response to a sharp rise in non-performing... 29th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all... 28th December 2023 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 28th December 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Looming manufacturing downturn another headwind Industrial output has usually fallen rather sharply whenever firms were as pessimistic about the production outlook as they are now. That’s consistent with our view that GDP growth next year will be... 28th December 2023 · 3 mins read
