UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Apr. 2024)

The stagnation in GDP in April (consensus 0.0%, CE -0.1%) doesn’t mean the economic recovery has been extinguished, but it’s hardly great news for the Prime Minister three weeks ahead of the election.

12th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone export prospects have improved

Sluggish economic growth in the euro-zone’s trading partners and a deterioration in competitiveness caused an extremely rare absolute decline in euro-zone export volumes last year. Poor...

11th June 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

Infrastructure drive likely to continue under Modi 3.0

The ramp-up in public capital expenditure in the last five years has helped to ease some of the bottlenecks that had previously acted as a constraint on India’s economy. Despite the Modi government’s...

11th June 2024 · 4 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will wait until early-2025 to cut rates

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, it is unlikely to meet the threshold for a...

11th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (June 2024)

The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

As the economy is set for a sustained period of below potential growth and core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the end of the year, the Bank of Canada’s June interest rate cut...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Pakistan cuts rate, but further easing to be gradual

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 150bps rate cut, and while further cuts are likely, ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a new long-term loan deal mean that...

10th June 2024 · 2 mins read

CE Spotlight

Spotlight: The future of global macro and markets leadership - Will the US be overtaken?

We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read

CE Spotlight

Spotlight: Chapter 2 - Will the US retain its economic lead and who might challenge it?

The US’s economic leadership is partly related to its sheer size, but its population also works more than other countries and it fares better on productivity. While the US economy faces various...

10th June 2024 · 39 mins read

CE Spotlight

Spotlight: Executive Summary: The future of global macro and markets leadership

We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI...

10th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook

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The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F

US Economics Weekly

Activity data not yet a cause for concern

We don’t think that the below-potential GDP growth implied by the recent activity data is a cause for concern yet, particularly while the labour market appears healthy. That will keep the Fed squarely...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s ‘supermajority’ worries, Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures

The prospect of a Morena-led supermajority in Mexico’s congress following Sunday’s election could allow Amlo's proposed constitutional amendments to see the light of day, weakening Mexico’s...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing

The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Export-led recovery, higher ECB forecast

Data released this week showed that the euro-zone’s recovery in the first quarter was mainly driven by exports, with domestic demand still subdued. Nevertheless, the recent stronger-than-expected...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read