Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018 We expect economic growth in Colombia to accelerate over the course of 2018. Inflation should fall sharply from the start of this year and interest rates are likely to be cut further. We do not... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF forecasts too optimistic (as usual) We broadly agree with the forecasts for global growth in 2018 which the IMF published today. But we think it is being over-optimistic about both global and US economic growth next year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Exchange rates to diverge as Swedish krona rises Prospects for the Nordic economies and Switzerland are strong, but there are divergent outlooks for monetary policy. In Sweden, inflation is already close to the Riksbank’s target and, with capacity... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring the... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes likely to be undone before long The Bank of Canada’s upgraded GDP growth forecast for this year looks overly optimistic given NAFTA and housing-related risks. Despite further increases in household borrowing costs and tougher new... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets off to a flyer, despite softer economic data EM financial markets have made a flying start to 2018, with most equity markets up by 4-6% since the start of the year and most currencies up by 2-3% against the US dollar. However, the incoming... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How ambitious is the grand coalition’s plan for Germany? The fiscal proposals agreed by Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz as part of their plan to renew Germany’s grand coalition amount to a headline-grabbing 1.5% of annual German GDP and include abolishing... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update GDP targets here to stay Official talk about prioritising the “quality” of economic growth over speed has sparked speculation that the government may stop setting GDP targets. Unfortunately we think they are here to stay. 22nd November 2017 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus History does not support pessimism about productivity potential Pessimism about the potential for future productivity growth and hence increases in living standards, based on recent poor productivity performance, is not well-founded. It provides no good reason to... 1st November 2017 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Winners & losers in the low growth era All EMs have entered a period of permanently weaker growth but it remains the case that growth rates over the next decade or so will differ significantly between countries. In this Focus we identify... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus 20 years on: assessing the past and future of Hong Kong 1st July marks the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to China. The city’s economy has continued to prosper over the last two decades, defying gloomy predictions made by some before the handover... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Deeper capacity cuts needed to avert protracted slowdown We estimate that sectors responsible for two-thirds of China’s industrial output now suffer from overcapacity. Despite this, policymakers continue to drag their feet on reform due to fears that deep... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Ukraine’s recent recovery Ukraine’s economy has seen rare good news over the past month as the IMF released additional funding after a long delay and recent data showed that growth strengthened. Nonetheless, there has been no... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of the Golden Age Widespread expectations for a sustained rebound in emerging market growth after the slowdown of recent years will be disappointed. The 2000s were a transient “Golden Age” for the emerging world, with... 13th October 2016 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jun.) The Markit/CIPS services survey was thankfully not as bad as the construction survey released yesterday. But it was not that good either and suggests that the economy struggled to grow much at all in... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the China crisis over? A year after tumbling equity prices in China triggered fears about a collapse in the economy, the crisis many feared has not materialised. While more jitters are possible, a slump in growth over the... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
