UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures revealed a widening divergence between borrowing to fund a house purchase and borrowing to fund other areas of spending. However, we don’t think that... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4, prelim. flash) & EC Survey (Jan.) Euro-zone GDP growth continued at a healthy pace in Q4 and, while the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator declined in January, it continues to point to a pick-up in growth to come. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that growth in the region as a whole may have picked up even further at the start of this year, to about 5.5-5.8% y/y... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Economy becoming increasingly formalised A key theme running through the government’s latest Economic Survey is the growing numbers of workers and firms being brought into the formal economy, and so subject to taxation and closer regulatory... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2017) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2017 GDP, which showed an expansion of 4.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth may have accelerated to as much as 5.4% y/y in Q4. This appears to... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Jan.) Despite January’s sharp fall in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, the indicator is still broadly consistent with annual GDP growth picking up to around 2%. With exporters benefiting from a weaker... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics French & Spanish GDP (Q4) The French economy’s healthy expansion in Q4 rounded off a strong year, while surveys point to an acceleration in growth ahead. Meanwhile, tensions in Catalonia had little impact on Spanish growth. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Consumer Spending (Dec.) While the jobless rate edged up in December, the continued rise in job vacancies suggest it will fall to fresh lows before long. Meanwhile, consumer spending should have rebounded last quarter even... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Life left in the region’s recovery While the rest of the global economy experienced a pick-up in growth towards the end of last year, our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth in Latin America flat-lined at around 2.5% y/y in Q4 –... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Getting back into gear We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in South Africa and Nigeria, the region’s two biggest... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do high oil prices mean for Asia? The recent jump in oil prices does not alter the outlook for Asia’s economies. But if prices were to rise significantly further, we would be most concerned about the impact on India and Sri Lanka. 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook No rush to raise rates 2018 will be the first year this century that the Australian economy won’t benefit from either a mining or housing boom. In those circumstances, we doubt that GDP growth will rise above 2.5%. And... 28th January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices The recent rally in oil prices has brightened the outlook for the majority of frontier oil exporters. In the Gulf, for example, higher oil prices and strong balance sheets have enabled the authorities... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we underestimating the impact of the tax cuts? The surge in the stock market and wave of firms announcing wage increases and bonuses since the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed have fuelled optimism that tax cuts are reviving “animal spirits” and... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
