UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) January’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggests that high-street spending growth maintained a steady pace at the start of 2018. But with inflation set to fall back this year, easing the squeeze on real... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector experiencing a renaissance Last week, Egypt’s President al-Sisi inaugurated the Zohr gas field which, combined with the onset of production from a number of other fields, will provide a sizeable boost to GDP growth over the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Dec.) The fall in retail sales and the deterioration in the international trade balance in December probably won’t ease the current jitters in the financial markets, but the figures aren’t as bad as they... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales followed a sharp rise in November and the high level of consumer confidence suggests that sales growth should soon pick up. Meanwhile, the final PMI for... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jan.) Following falls in the manufacturing and construction surveys released last week, the weak January services sector survey suggests that the economy lost the momentum it gained in Q4 at the start of... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia’s growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter to 5.2%, from 5.1%, but we doubt the recovery has further to run. While the consensus is expecting growth to accelerate gradually over the... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth to slow in 2018 The Canadian economy had a pretty good year in 2017, with GDP growth accelerating to 2.9%, up from 1.4% in 2016 and only 1.0% in 2015. But last year was a tale of two halves, with exceptionally strong... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Easing financial conditions pose a problem for the Fed Despite long-term Treasury yields rising sharply this week to their highest level in four years, broader measures suggest that overall financial conditions have actually continued to loosen. Corporate... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC about to shorten its horizon? We have long-argued that interest rates would rise somewhat faster, and sooner, than markets expecting. Recent comments by Governor Carney offer tentative support to this view and suggest that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth still likely to slow this year With our GDP tracker suggesting that activity continued to expand at a rapid clip last quarter, risks to our forecast of a 1.2% rise in GDP this year are skewed to the upside. However, the economy is... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's industrial recovery remains on track 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI stayed closed to a seven-year high in January, suggesting that the momentum of the world economy carried over into the New Year. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in January left it well above historical averages and consistent with GDP growth of over 4% annualised. With domestic demand receiving a boost from tax... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2017) Russian annual GDP data for 2017, which showed that the economy expanded by 1.5% over the year as a whole, are consistent with a slowdown in growth to 1.0% y/y in Q4, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. However, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The fall in the PMI in January suggests that manufacturing growth slowed a little at the start of the year. But the big picture is that the sector is still performing well by recent standards. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to a stable January China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs diverged a little in January but both imply that activity held up relatively well. That said, they were not sufficiently strong to explain the gains... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
