UK Economics Chart Pack Sluggish start to the year for retailers It is always a challenge to get a proper reading of the underlying strength of consumer spending growth around this time of year, with changing seasonal sales patterns (including the introduction of... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the slowdown in domestic demand be sustained? Data released this week confirmed that the euro-zone economy finished 2017 on a strong footing. But the composition of growth shifted markedly in the second half of last year, with net trade making a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) With real incomes under pressure from weak nominal pay growth and above-target inflation, it isn’t surprising that high-street spending growth has continued to lose momentum. But the worst of the real... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth slowed from 2.3% y/y in Q3 to a weaker-than-expected 1.6% y/y in Q4, but we still expect the economy to recover over the course of this year. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in January isn't a huge surprise following the rapid growth at the end of last year. Along with the weaker retail sales data released yesterday, however... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: First thoughts on Zuma’s resignation The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions little affected by market sell-off The sell-off in financial markets, which was triggered by a reassessment of the outlook for US inflation and interest rates, has meant that government bond yields have jumped. But these recent moves... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Dec.) While machinery orders fell sharply in December, they were broadly unchanged in the fourth quarter as a whole. However, we already know from yesterday’s release of the GDP data that business... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The weaker tone of the January retail sales report, which showed a stagnation in underlying sales and downward revisions to previous months, suggests that real consumption growth is set to slow in the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: private sector credit to support pick-up in growth Bank lending to Egypt’s private sector has been weak for a number of years as the government has leaned on local banks to purchase government bonds, crowding out credit to the rest of the economy. But... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Political drama masks economic recovery Attention in South Africa is firmly focused on news that the ANC will vote President Jacob Zuma out of office on Thursday. But the political drama has distracted from a marked cyclical improvement in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Early signs that Russia’s recovery is getting back on track Russia’s economy slowed over the second half of 2017, but the latest data for January suggest that conditions have improved at the start of this year. We expect growth to strengthen over the coming... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q4) & Industrial Prod. (Dec.) An acceleration in industrial production growth was not enough to prevent a slight slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is bright. 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian, Dutch & Portuguese GDP (Q4) Q4 GDP data showed that Italy’s economy performed fairly well last year but that it is still lagging behindthe rest of the euro-zone. Despite the recent strength of the surveys, we doubt that this... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2017) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that growth in the region as a whole expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q4. While this is still very strong by recent standards, it’s weaker than Q3’s outturn... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
