Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Iceland: What went right and what might go wrong? Icelandic growth is set to hold up well with tourism booming despite the strength of the króna and with the financial imbalances that caused the previous crisis largely resolved. But inflation is a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) Despite falling in February, the euro-zone Composite PMI remained at a high level and consistent with continued healthy GDP growth in early 2018. This might encourage the ECB to signal before long... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) The rise in wage growth in the fourth quarter may be the first real sign that wages are benefiting from the recent strength of jobs growth. But real wages have been stagnant for two years. And the... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While the manufacturing PMI weakened in February it remains near the highest it has been since 2014’s sales tax hike and consistent with strong gains in industrial output. Meanwhile, the survey... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Another ugly first quarter? The early activity data for January have come in below expectations, raising the possibility that economic growth may once again disappoint in the first quarter. Both industrial production and... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking The consensus on growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) remains too rosy; by contrast we think that the current cycle is now close to peaking. While we do not expect EM growth to collapse, we do think it... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey suggests that the growth of manufacturing output may have slowed a bit at the start of the year. But the big picture remains that the sector is still performing... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s small fall in German investor sentiment was unsurprising against a backdrop of falling equity prices and a strong euro. The fact that the majority of investors expect economic conditions to... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Is Japan overheating? Japan’s economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter of growth in Q4, the longest uninterrupted run of expansion since the late 1980s. Unemployment is very low, inflation has started to pick up... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) Russian activity data for January show that, having slowed over the second half of last year, the economy has now turned the corner. It looks like growth picked up to about 1.3% y/y last month from 1... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand’s economy lost some momentum in Q4 but still expanded at the fastest pace since 2012 last year. We expect growth to remain robust over the coming quarters, supported by accommodative fiscal... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) Trade values were distorted in January by seasonal swings ahead of the Lunar New Year. The bigger picture is that external demand remains robust. 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The strong rise in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February may be the first sign of the boost to consumers from lower taxes and suggests that, even if consumption growth slows... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation to remain muted Global bond markets have been shaken by the recent run of stronger wage and price inflation figures in the US. Although we have long expected that a rebound in core inflation south of the border would... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Sluggish start to the year for retailers It is always a challenge to get a proper reading of the underlying strength of consumer spending growth around this time of year, with changing seasonal sales patterns (including the introduction of... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the slowdown in domestic demand be sustained? Data released this week confirmed that the euro-zone economy finished 2017 on a strong footing. But the composition of growth shifted markedly in the second half of last year, with net trade making a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
