Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Further slowdown of EM GDP growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth softened at the end of last year and early indicators point to further weakness at the start of 2018. 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s unconventional easing fails to convince markets Long-term bond yields in Hungary have risen further this year than those of the country’s peers, despite the central bank’s efforts to bring them down. It seems that markets are coming around to our... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Dec.) Although our New Zealand Activity Proxy declined in December, the decent rise over the fourth quarter as a whole suggests that GDP growth accelerated at the end of last year. 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending losing momentum There are some tentative signs that the past tightening in mortgage rules and increase in interest rates are beginning to have an impact beyond housing by negatively impacting household spending too... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Near-term outlook bright, but tougher times lie ahead With the economy set to receive an additional fiscal boost following the recent deal in Congress to raise the discretionary spending caps, we are revising up our GDP growth forecasts for both this... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Time to throw in the towel on growth? (No) Recent news on the UK economy, including the downward revision to Q4 GDP growth, appears to have lent more support to the consensus forecast of slower growth in 2018 than to our prediction of an... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Why Africa won’t be the next EM powerhouse African economies entered a cyclical upturn last year, and we think that they will outperform consensus expectations in 2018 and 2019. But their long-term outlook is less rosy than that of many... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Time to worry about the weak peso? A low level of foreign currency debt in the Philippines means the recent weakness of the peso is not a major concern. In fact, despite the current worries about rising inflation, policymakers appear... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the interest-only loan market nearing a precipice? There has been a renewed focus in recent weeks on interest-only loans in Australia and the potential risk that these loans present to financial stability, particularly given a large portion of... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb.) Despite the fall back in the headline reported sales balance, the survey still points to retail spending growth at least maintaining its current pace. And the forward-looking balances paint an upbeat... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of Q4 GDP revealed that the economy grew by a downwardly revised 0.4% q/q in the final quarter of 2017, with annual growth revised down from 1.8% to 1.7%. Encouragingly, however... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in Ifo business sentiment matches the message from other surveys that German GDP growth is nearing its peak. Nevertheless, the outlook remains bright. 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Growth slows in Q4, further weakness ahead With most countries in the region now having reported GDP figures for Q4, we estimate that aggregate growth in Emerging Asia (excluding China and India) came in at 4.4% y/y last quarter. While this... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Feb.) Preliminary PMIs point to continued strong growth in advanced economies in February and are consistent with our view that the world economy will expand at a decent pace this year. 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Iceland: What went right and what might go wrong? Icelandic growth is set to hold up well with tourism booming despite the strength of the króna and with the financial imbalances that caused the previous crisis largely resolved. But inflation is a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
