Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q4, Breakdown) The first breakdown of Italy’s GDP in Q4 showed that the slowdown in growth was driven by household spending. This is perhaps unsurprising given that real wages are falling, and might also explain the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s trade deficit signals a revival of past vulnerabilities The sharp widening of Turkey’s trade deficit in the last few months is a reflection of very strong domestic demand, which has sucked in imports. But the deficit is now approaching levels that, in the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is this it? Dismal industrial production and weak consumer spending figures for January suggest that Japan’s longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late 1980s will come to an end this quarter. We... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Gradual slowdown ahead GDP growth across Emerging Asia edged down in the final quarter of last year and is likely to ease further over the coming year. While in most cases the slowdown should be relatively gradual, Hong... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI once again held up close to a seven-year high in February, which sits well with our view that 2018 will be another strong year for global growth. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The weaker-than-expected increase in Brazilian GDP in Q4 was due in large part to a sizeable drag from net trade. This was partly due to the unwinding of an earlier jump in agricultural exports, but... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) January’s household borrowing figures will help to assuage fears that the slowdown in the housing market is gathering pace. And consumers still appear confident enough to borrow to smooth their... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Easing in real pay squeeze to pave the way for pick-up in spending growth While household spending growth slowed markedly in 2017, the outlook for 2018 and beyond looks brighter. Indeed, the worst of the real pay squeeze appears to have passed. Following a peak of 3.1% in... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) & Money and Credit (Jan.) February’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has lost some momentum in Q1. But the details of the survey were more encouraging, and there is little sign in the latest money and credit figures... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4, breakdown) The first breakdown of Spanish GDP showed encouragingly broad-based growth in Q4 despite the effects of the political crisis in Catalonia. Meanwhile, the surveys paint a positive picture of the... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The Swiss economy ended 2017 on a fairly strong note and the surveys paint a positive picture for 2018. But with inflation set to remain subdued, we think that the SNB will wait until 2020 to raise... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) February’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs point to continued strong growth. But this only seems to be causing underlying inflationary pressure to build in Sweden. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe fell across the region, but are still consistent with strong industrial activity in Central Europe. And while the sharp drop in the Russian survey... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Household sentiment weakened in February as the recent equity market turmoil reduced confidence in households’ personal finances. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in February. But the reading is still strong, and prospects for local manufacturers look relatively bright over the near term. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The survey data don’t offer a clear signal on the strength of factory activity last month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI was largely unchanged but the official index dropped sharply. The former is... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read