Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The most encouraging aspect of the fourth-quarter GDP release was the acceleration in the various measures of income growth. Even so, we suspect that still-subdued income growth and a soft housing... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity producers on the mend GDP data for 2017 revealed a widespread improvement in growth in key EM commodity producers last year. While we are relatively downbeat on the medium-term prospects for most of these economies, we... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the PMIs getting it wrong? Markit’s PMIs have recently pointed to faster economic growth than the official data show, once again raising questions about their accuracy. However, even if they are currently over-stating growth a... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The fall in Brazilian industrial production in January was largely payback for an especially strong outturn in December – we still expect the industrial recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in PMIs eases fears of continued slowdown Following a downward revision to quarterly GDP growth in Q4, from 0.5% to 0.4%, a deterioration in all three of the headline PMI balances in January raised concerns that growth had continued to slow... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth already gaining steam in late 2017 South African Q4 GDP figures were better than even our own above-consensus forecast. We expect that the economy will retain momentum in the coming quarters, and beat consensus expectations in 2018. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy moving towards recovery It looks like Saudi Arabia’s economy turned the corner in late 2017 and, while the early data from the start of this year have been disappointing, a recovery should still get underway. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA repeats that progress on inflation will be gradual The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the 17 th consecutive meeting and it noted once again that progress in returning inflation to target is likely to be “gradual”... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan.) & GDP Partials (Q4) Today’s data releases suggest that GDP growth was a touch stronger than we had expected in the fourth quarter of last year. That said, the smaller than anticipated rise in retail sales in January... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with clients and local contacts in Bogotá. In this Update, we summarise four key takeaways from our visit. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Renewed boom in productivity remains elusive Following a decade when productivity growth averaged barely 1% per year, we anticipate a modest acceleration to 1.5% over the next few years, principally because the low unemployment rate, rising... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s PMI readings for the Gulf suggest that the imposition of austerity measures at the start of this year is still weighing on non-oil sectors in the region. But we think that the impact will... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress China’s retention of an “about 6.5%” growth target for GDP in 2018, while expected, undermines the argument that growth is being demoted as a central policy concern. Growth is likely to slow we... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2017) The weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth of 1.7% q/q annualised, following a downward-revised 1.5% pace in the previous quarter, was driven by household consumption and housing which, with... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Manufacturing recovery has further to run Recent data have raised fears that the long-awaited recovery in the manufacturing sector is coming to an end before it really had a chance to get going. One possible explanation for the recent... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has euro-zone growth peaked? The latest survey indicators all suggest that GDP growth in the euro-zone has peaked. That said, the economic recovery looks set to continue at a healthy pace over the next few years. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
